Euro elections voting could be volatile, say experts

By Cameron Brooks

Published: 03/06/2009

The main political parties could face a shock tomorrow as voters go to the polls in the first test of political opinion since the Westminster expenses scandal and the controversy over the government’s handling of the economic crisis.

Experts have predicted that voting patterns at the European Parliament elections could be the most “volatile” in living memory.

One think tank, Democratic Audit, said public anger towards mainstream parties could see smaller outfits such as the Greens and BNP doing exceptionally well.

It said conventional opinion polls could not be relied upon in an election where turnout is likely to be low and where regional variations may be crucial.

The turnout at the last contest in 2004 for the whole of the UK was just 38.9%.

Democratic Audit director Stuart Wilks-Heeg said: “This promises to be one of the most unusual elections we have ever seen.

“The voting system, the current political climate and regional concentrations of support could see smaller parties fare exceptionally well.

“If turnout remains at just under 40% and regular voters switch support away from the main parties, rather than stay at home, we would see seats won by the Greens and BNP.”

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is expected to reshuffle his senior ministerial team on Friday if, as predicted, Labour suffers major losses.

Forecasters fear people either spoil ballot papers to show their dissent, vote for minority parties or stay away altogether in protest.

In Scotland, some 72 candidates from mainstream political parties and smaller ones such as the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) and NO2EU are competing for just six seats.

The number has been reduced from seven to take account of Bulgaria and Romania joining the EU, taking the number of member states to 27.

There are 72 seats up for grabs across the UK, down from 78. Five serving Scots MEPs, Labour’s David Martin and Catherine Stihler, Ian Hudghton and Alyn Smith of the SNP and Conservative Struan Stevenson, are seeking re-election under the proportional representation voting system.

Former MSP George Lyon is the Liberal Democrats’ number one candidate, taking over from Elspeth Attwooll, who has retired.

Ex-Holyrood MSPs Colin Fox and Tommy Sheridan are standing for the SSP and NO2EU respectively. Elaine Morrison is the Green Party’s top candidate and Turriff man Gary Raikes is at the top of the BNP’s list.

All of the mainstream parties have largely focused on a promise to create thousands of “green” jobs through renewable energy projects.

They have also vowed to stand up for the farming and fishing industries, backing tougher regulation of supermarkets to protect food producers.

European Parliament president Hans Gert Pottering and Cardinal Keith O'Brien, leader of Scotland’s Roman Catholics, last night urged people to cast their votes despite any apathy they may feel.

Mr Pottering said “The election represents a great opportunity to relaunch the European Union and to address the issues that are important to citizens such as the economic crisis, climate change, globalisation or immigration.”

Cardinal O’Brien said that participating would help reverse the loss of Christian influence which “made possible the growth and prosperity of Europe in the first place”.

Candidates will continue to canvas for votes across Scotland today.

The SNP will be trying to woo people in Dundee, with First Minister Alex Salmond declaring the party would give Scotland a “strong voice in Europe and force the UK Government to act on key Scottish demands”.

Former Lib Dem leader and Highland MP Charles Kennedy and Mr Lyon will visit Fort William, while Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie and Mr Stevenson will be in Edinburgh.

Labour candidates are canvassing in Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Even though the polls open tomorrow, votes cast within the boundaries of Scotland’s 32 councils will not be counted until Sunday to coincide with other EU member states.

The contents of ballot boxes across the north-east will be counted at the Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Centre.

Counts will also take place at Caird Hall in Dundee and at Inverness Sports Centre.

The results will be announced locally before being forwarded to the Scotland region returning officer, Edinburgh City Council chief executive Tom Aitchison.

He will make an official declaration at the Mercat Cross on the Royal Mile on Monday morning.

The timing takes account of the fact no votes will be counted in the Western Isles on Sunday.

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