Future direction of swine flu outbreak

PREDICTIONS that swine flu could hit the 10,000-a-day mark in Scotland by next month, after breaking out of the containment phase, will inevitably cause alarm.

This should not equate to panic, however, even if cases UK-wide rise to 100,000-a-day. Swine flu, or H1N1, is a new strain of influenza, so it will naturally spread quickly through populations which have no immunity.

In its current form, it has been causing mild symptoms in healthy people. As eminent authority on the subject Professor Hugh Pennington observed, it is similar to normal winter flu. This kills many vulnerable people each year, but many of the general public do not protect themselves with a vaccine. There is a strong element of natural immunity.

It is a question of keeping it all in perspective, even although it has spread rapidly in the space of just over two months.

Ministers and health authorities in Edinburgh and London have acted meticulously in monitoring and analysing the illness, while keeping the public abreast of what is happening. Scottish Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon has struck the right tone in her announcements and people should take their lead from this.

At present, swine flu is following a predictable pattern. The time to really worry is if it mutates into something more dangerous this winter and starts killing healthy people, but there is no sign of that.

People should take sensible precautions. Trying to engage in so-called “swine flu parties” would appear to be inviting trouble, but building up public immunity is certainly a key to weakening the effects of this disease. Panic is the last thing we should do.