Swine flu cannot be contained and the number of new cases could reach 100,000 a day by the end of next month, the UK Government said yesterday.
Officials say that, with the number of cases doubling every week, it is now impossible to contain the outbreak and the country has moved into the “treatment phase”.
The bleak picture will be mirrored north of the border. Scottish Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon last night announced changes in the way swine flu is being dealt with after being advised that Scotland could see 10,000 cases a day by August.
The rapid rise has so far left the UK with 7,447 laboratory-confirmed cases, with 1,263 in Scotland. Six people with swine flu are in hospital in Scotland and receiving treatment.
The UK Government has now been forced to order enough vaccine to cover the whole population.
Meanwhile, company bosses are being warned to draw up plans to keep their businesses going if large numbers of staff become ill with the H1N1 virus this summer.
In a speech to the Commons yesterday, Health Secretary Andy Burnham said: “The national focus will be on treating the increasing numbers affected by swine flu.
“We will move to this treatment phase across the UK with immediate effect.
“There are now, on average, several hundred new cases every day.
“Our efforts during the containment phase have given us precious time to learn more about the virus.
“We have always known it would be impossible to contain the virus indefinitely and at some point we would need to move away from containment to treatment. Cases are doubling every week and, on this trend, we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August.
“We have now signed contracts to secure enough vaccine for the whole population.”
The first will become available next month, with 60million doses available by the end of the year.
Testing has shown that H1N1 can be treated with the antiviral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza, which comes in the form of an inhaler.
These drugs are not a “cure” for swine flu but can help reduce symptoms and cut the length of time somebody is ill.
In the UK three people have died after contracting the virus. Mr Burnham said they all had underlying health problems.
Ms Sturgeon said the change in strategy was a decision taken between the UK’s four administrations.
“We’ve always said it would be impossible to limit the spread of what is a contagious virus indefinitely,” she said.
“We’ve always said that, when it did start to spread more widely within communities, we would require to make a judgment about when to shift efforts from intense containment to treatment, or mitigation.
“Given the number of cases, and the evidence of community transmission, we believe now is the right time to move to the treatment phase of dealing with the pandemic.
“This does not mean that the virus is getting more severe or that there is any cause for alarm. It simply means that we are seeing a rise in the number of cases and are adapting our approach to dealing with these.”
Ms Sturgeon said “high-risk” groups such as children under five, pregnant women and the elderly would get quick access to medication.
Scotland’s Chief Medical Officer Harry Burns said the country could expect one tenth of the UK cases of swine flu.
“It could be a bit less, it could be a bit more. It also presupposes that there isn’t a downturn, if it continues to rise at this rate and its doubling about every week.”
After infections peaked in Scotland, at 111 confirmed cases on June 25, the rate has remained steady at about 60 new cases a day.
Scotland had the first two deaths in Europe related to swine flu — Jacqui Fleming, 38, died in Paisley on June 14 after giving birth prematurely and a 73-year-old man from Inverclyde died on June 27.
The Health Protection Agency will now take a step back from dealing with the outbreak. The daily updates on confirmed cases will end and “more general” estimates of numbers will be given.
The UK Government’s Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, said a vaccine was at an advanced stage.
“We have a big stockpile of antivirals — the biggest probably in the world. We have vaccine at an advance stage of production.”
Asked if the disease was out of control, he said: “It is following a predictable path – it isn’t out of control, but flu viruses cannot be put back in their box once they are out.
“We are continuing to take a very firm grip on this situation. We have the advantage of a centralised healthcare system which, when it needs to, can take control.”
Mr Burnham said it was not yet known what the cost of tackling swine flu would be.