Revival will be ‘feeble and fragile’

Former Tory chancellor paints grim picture of economy after prime minister predicts growth

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Britain’s economic recovery will be “feeble and fragile” and whoever wins the next election will need a full parliament to nurse it back to health, shadow business secretary Kenneth Clarke warned yesterday.

The former chancellor’s comments came after Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged to return the economy to growth by the end of the year, bringing to an end what is now the longest recession since records began.

After shock figures on Friday which showed the economy shrank by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2009, Mr Brown used a podcast message to insist that the battle to stop the downturn becoming a second Great Depression was being won and to warn that the Conservatives’ “suicidal” plans to cut spending would put recovery at risk.

Tory leader David Cameron, however, insisted that a change of government was needed to restore growth, blaming Labour’s economic mistakes and lack of a plan for the future for the fact that Britain remains mired in recession six months after rivals like France, Germany and Japan escaped it.

Writing in a Sunday newspaper, Mr Cameron said: “We need to change direction, with a new government that puts in place a pro-growth, pro-enterprise agenda.

“I know that a vision of growth may seem a long way off in the light of the latest figures showing that we are still in recession. But Britain does have the resources to get there.

“We have got the people, the ingenuity, the ideas. We just need a government that will help them, not stand in their way.”

In his podcast, released on the 10 Downing Street website and YouTube, Mr Brown warned against the swift reductions in public spending promised by the Tories to get state debt under control.

“Although there are signs that confidence is beginning to return in some areas, we need to be cautious,” said the prime minister.

“Now, more than ever, is the time for steady and clear policies. That is why it would be suicidal to put recovery at risk by suddenly cutting off the funding and investment that is supporting young people, families and businesses through the most challenging times in a generation.”

He added: “My pledge to you is to make reform of the financial sector a reality and to see Britain’s economy return to growth by the turn of the year.”

Mr Clarke said he believed that Britain’s route to recovery would be “L-shaped” - suggesting a lengthy period of stagnation and minimal growth — rather than the V-shaped swift return to healthy growth that Mr Brown is hoping for or the W-shaped “double dip” recession that economists fear.

“I think sooner or later we are going to start getting a very feeble recovery but it is going to be feeble and fragile,” he said.

“The next parliament is going to be dominated by trying to strengthen it and get it back to something like a normal rate of growth.