Shift in fortune means PM sees light at end of the tunnel

By ron ferguson

Published:

WELL, well. Former Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously said that a week was a long time in politics. Current Prime Minister Gordon Brown will undoubtedly agree with that, as he reflects upon a shift in fortune.

For months, the occupant of 10 Downing Street has taken a pounding – the war in Afghanistan, David Cameron’s barbs during prime minister’s question time in the Westminster bear-pit, being grilled by Andrew Marr about what pills he might or might not be taking, questions about his eyesight, caricatures in newspapers, the Sun newspaper announcing that it was switching support to the Tories, damaging whispers about possible coups against him, and low personal ratings in opinion polls.

At times, the PM has looked like a bruised prizefighter clinging to the ropes for survival.

After a tough spell, though, Mr Brown could see a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel, knowing that it might not be an express train heading in his direction.

He’s very far from being out of the woods, of course, but he is in less danger of being counted out before the big contest even starts.

So what has caused the change in the prime minister’s immediate prospects? At least three things are important: a better performance against David Cameron in parliament, a handwritten letter to a soldier's mother, and a battling by-election performance by Labour. David Cameron is normally a sharp, sure-footed performer on the floor of Westminster. As befits a former public-relations man, he wears better clothes and is quicker on his feet than the sometimes ponderous prime minister. But at the last prime minister’s question time, Gordon Brown had the Tory leader flustered and struggling. Mr Cameron ended up red-faced as the Labour backbenchers roared and waved their order papers.

You’ll probably be familiar with the story of the handwritten letter, but here’s a reminder: The prime minister makes a habit of writing personal letters to close relatives of service personnel who have died in action. He had written to Mrs Jacqui Janes, the grieving mother of a dead soldier, Private Jamie Janes, to express his condolences.

The prime minister’s handwriting is, shall we say, not the best. It looked as if he had misspelled Mrs Janes’s name. Mrs Janes went to the Sun newspaper, the tabloid which had so recently announced its support for the Conservative Party, and voiced her grievances. The red-top launched a vitriolic attack on Mr Brown.

Mr Brown decided to telephone Mrs Janes to make amends. Unbeknown to him, his telephone call was being taped. In the course of the call, Mrs Janes attacked the prime minister on the issue of equipment for British troops. The following day, the Sun newspaper made a crude attack on Mr Brown, ridiculing him about his eyesight.

This was the tipping point which turned public opinion in Gordon Brown's favour. Most ordinary people felt that the prime minister should not be attacked for writing a personal note to the relative of a soldier. They also felt that the taping of the telephone call was a set-up, one which was designed to show the premier in a bad light.

The tabloid newspaper’s website went into meltdown as the public responded to what had gone on. The arrogant attack on Mr Brown was widely perceived to be unfair.

Then came the by-election. The Glasgow North East constituency was due to elect an MP to succeed former speaker of the House of Commons Michael Martin. The SNP had been making positive noises about the campaign, but Labour won the by-election comfortably with a majority of 8,111 over the SNP.

Emboldened, the prime minister felt able to look ahead to tomorrow’s Queen's Speech by promising the government would introduce legislation to ensure Britain had a “bright future".

There is now a spring in the old bruiser’s step. He knows that if the British economy continues to improve by the spring of next year, he at least has a fighting chance of giving David Cameron a run for his money.

The reality is that one by-election victory does not of itself change the political landscape. The Conservatives hold a 14-point lead in the polls. Not only that, the Labour Party has been in power for 12 years and the government looks pretty tired.

Nevertheless, by winning Glasgow North East, the government has sent Alex Salmond homeward to think again.

David Cameron, who has looked as if he were within touching distance of the levers of power, might find himself waking up in the night, wondering if victory at the polls is as secure as it has looked recently.

If Mr Brown had lost the by-election, his position as leader of the Labour Party would have been even less secure. At the moment, it would be a foolish politician who would throw his hat in the ring against Mr Brown.

Gordon Brown is an experienced politician. He is certainly not a quitter and, despite his travails over the past months, he has been able to see off talk of potential rivals. Even although he has been ridiculed in some parts of the media, he is a resilient man.

I know Gordon Brown, and I know him to be in public life because he wants to make a difference to people's lives. What I can say for sure is that he is not a man to walk away from the battle.

The man from Fife does not have the smooth presentational skills of Tony Blair or Peter Mandelson. He has made plenty of mistakes in his time and he will know that himself. He is not as slick an operator as David Cameron. Nevertheless, I believe him to be the more-substantial man.

He has many obstacles to overcome if he is to win a fourth term for Labour. The odds are stacked against them, and I would not put money on him keeping the keys to 10 Downing Street.

Nevertheless, politics has suddenly got less predictable. The story of the tortoise and the hare would not be a comfortable one for David Cameron's bedtime reading.