The doom-laden writing has been on the wall for years

By Ron Ferguson

Published:

READING the signs of the times: that’s what columnists are supposed to do. Or at least try to. The columnist is supposed to get behind the day-by-day headlines and try to read the runes, to translate the writing on the wall. Peter Jenkins, that outstanding political commentator, said that columnists spent a great deal of their time reading the papers on behalf of their readers, trying to make a pattern out of a torrent of words. He added that the job of the columnist was to take an ego trip to entertain the readers, “preferably by annoying them, with strong opinions on each and every subject”.

Columns are all about opinions, often instant opinions; and about judgments, often sweeping judgments. Consistency, mercifully, is neither required nor, indeed, expected.

Thinking about headline events I have been commentating on over the last few years, it strikes me forcibly that many of the troubles we are experiencing today have been predicted for quite some time.

Let me give you an example of what I mean. Iraq. There was something dodgy about this right from the start, and lots of people “smelled” it. Despite their public disavowals, the evidence shows that President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair had committed themselves to the invasion of Iraq early on in the process. Or put it this way: Dubya decided early on, and Tony quickly jumped aboard the express train. There was something about the body language that gave it away. You could sense it.

Many people who had never been on a demonstration before marched against the invasion. Of course, their protests made not a blind bit of difference. Military victory came quickly – “Mission Accomplished”, said the brazen banner – but the aftermath was a disaster. No weapons of mass destruction were found; lots of people died or were maimed; al Qaida gained more recruits. The predicted doom scenario unfolded before our helpless eyes.

But the same is true with a raft of other issues. Over the past few years, images of angry motorists at the petrol pumps, rising floodwaters, and the massive costs of the new weapons of mass destruction we plan to have in Scottish waters have been on our screens. But people have been warning about these things for years.

When I see what is happening, a biblical passage keeps sounding in my mind. I hear it in the majestic cadences of the King James Version of the scriptures: “I the Lord thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; and shewing mercy unto thousands of them that love me, and keep my commandments.”

I’m not sure that God does bring judgment on the children, but the inexorable logic of history tells us that, whatever the reason, children do pay for the sins of the tribal fathers and mothers.

Take oil. No wonder people are angry. The price of fuel is impacting on many areas of life, including the cost of food. There are some things a government can do to relieve pressure, but in our heart of hearts we know that the era of cheap fuel is now officially over.

Is this crisis unexpected? Not really. It has been flagged up for decades. The human response has been to disregard the warnings.

Even now, the cry is for more motorways. Government ministers, keeping their eyes fixed on the next election, made token efforts to meet the challenge. Well, the sins of the fathers are unfolding before our eyes, and no foot-stamping at petrol stations will alter things. Yet the problem has been evident for a long time.

Fossil fuels are a finite resource, and it was obvious years ago that petrol would become more expensive. Words like “fiddling”, “Rome” and “burns” come to mind.

Environmental disaster? Those who saw the signs five decades ago were regarded as cranks. Even as late as the 1970s, the Ecology Party, which talked about “sustainability”, was ridiculed as a bunch of do-gooders. Now, in the early part of the 21st century, the planet itself is rebelling. As the greenhouse gasses take their toll and the water levels rise, increasing nervousness is detected in the mocking amusement of the philosophical successors of those who laughed at Noah.

Our consuming habits are starting to devour us, creating a dreadful legacy for our grandchildren. A San Francisco research group called Redefining Progress has done the sums: if the whole world were to consume at the rate of the average American, a further three planets would be needed.

American and British servicemen are still dying so that we in the west can continue to burn up the Earth’s resources in a way that is putting at risk the very planet which sustains us. Our high-minded lectures to China and India, while we build more airport runways, lack moral credibility.

Weapons of mass destruction? After the fall of the Berlin Wall, there was a window of opportunity for serious steps in the process of disarmament. Now, in 2008, we plan to replace the nuclear submarines on the Clyde at a cost of £25billion. While we do this, we have the brass neck to preach to other nations about weapons of mass destruction. Our problem is spiritual before it is economic.

Debt? It’s been obvious for years that we were living in a fool’s paradise. I know that I’ve been writing on the subject for a long time; so have other commentators. Both as individuals and as a nation we have been living well beyond our means. Bankers thought they could walk on water, but now they’re sinking; yet they will make sure they get into the lifeboats before the rest of the human race. The sins of the fathers are impacting on a new generation.

What we need is not more and more political spin, but a new willingness to spell out the truth about our situation and to take action, even if it’s highly unpopular. That’s what real leadership is all about, and I don’t think we’re getting it.