The Brexit talks continue to drag on but, despite Covid forcing a temporary halt, a deal should emerge in the next few days.
This is partly driven by the time needed for confirmation by the European Parliament. The sticking points around fish, state aid and how the deal would be policed are slowly being resolved. It is however clear that when it emerges it will not answer the many outstanding questions in agriculture about access to the EU-27 market.
The UK will no longer be part of the customs union so it cannot be business as usual. How close farming gets to that will depend on the detail and the thrashing out of that will be left to the many committees working alongside the main Brexit negotiation. How these issues are resolved will decide to what degree trade can continue uninterrupted.
Ironically for agriculture one of the big threats remains efforts to block legitimate UK imports, but London is resisting measures to referee how the trade deal will operate. Whatever the deal, the UK will be outside the single market.
The flagship – but stalled – trade deal between the EU-27 and the Mercosur countries of South America is facing further problems.
It has been blocked by EU farm ministers because of concerns around Brazil’s destruction of rain forests and its failure to prevent further damage.
It emerged recently that rainforest destruction in Brazil rose by 20% in the past year, despite promises it would tackle the problem and EU farm ministers say they no longer see grounds to believe assurances from Brazil.
This comes on top of opposition to the Mercosur deal in a number of member states, which have refused to ratify it. It is an outcome that will be welcomed by farmers, because of the threat reduced or zero-tariff South American imports would have on European beef markets.
How to respond to these concerns will be an issue for the UK after Brexit, when it will be anxious to secure a trade deal with the Mercosur group.
Meanwhile the outgoing Trump administration has written to the World Trade Organisation urging it to take action against China over its rejection of meat consignments found to have traces of coronavirus on packaging.
