A couple more cows per farm in Aberdeenshire and Moray each year, plus an extra pair of cattle on every croft in the Highlands and Islands will deliver a huge boost to the Scottish economy, a new report claims.
It could be worth as much as £76 million annually to the nation in gross value added (GVA) terms, Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) says.
The same investment on farms across Angus, Perth & Kinross, Stirlingshire and other parts of Scotland can also contribute to this level of growth, the trade body suggests.
Small increase in Scottish herds would deliver big increase in beef output, new report from QMS says
Its latest economic modelling for the red meat sector estimates six to eight more cows per herd in total over three to four years could generate an additional £281m in output.
The figures are based on the current reproduction rate for cattle north of the border.
Imports warning
And the report goes on to forecast what may happen if UK beef production does not grow. Net imports will likely increase by around 124,000 tons by 2030, QMS warns.
The red meat marketing group also highlights that beef processing capacity in Scotland is currently underused, operating at just 69–73%.
Launching the report, published today, QMS chairwoman Kate Rowell said: “Our evidence centre points to a clear growth opportunity by servicing domestic demand which, if we don’t seize, others certainly will through imports.
“We want the Scottish herd to grow by close to 80,000 cattle.”
This equates to an “attainable” couple more cows per herd each year, Ms Rowell said.
She added: “Nationally, this goal would see the herd return to the levels seen in the mid-2010s. With the strength in our beef prices at the moment, now is the ideal time to invest.
If our production continues to decline, it will intensify adverse knock-on effects across the supply chain.” Kate Rowell, QMS
“Scotland has the infrastructure to support this growth, with the processing sector currently operating at only 69-73% capacity.
“If our production continues to decline, it will intensify adverse knock-on effects across the supply chain from feed, haulage and auctioneers to processors, butchers, retailers and, finally, consumers.”
QMS report highlights
Key research findings in the QMS report include:
- The UK’s beef sector faces growing supply and demand gap by 2030, needing additional 278,000t of beef to reach self-sufficiency
- Domestic production is projected to fall 8% from 2023 levels, while demand is expected to rise
- Scotland could help bridge the gap with 22,000t more beef, requiring 79,000 additional breeding cows
- At the current reproduction rate, two more cows per herd annually – or six to eight more cows per herd over three to four years – could generate an additional £281m in output and £76m in GVA for the Scottish economy
- Without any increase in UK beef production, net imports will likely rise by around 124,000t by 2030
QMS also warns a rise in global demand for UK beef could further exacerbate supply issues domestically, requiring even greater import volumes to balance the market.
Its report adds: “Given that UK beef production is typically more efficient and lower in emissions than international alternatives, increasing imports contradicts global sustainability goals, including commitments under the Paris Agreement.”
‘No one silver bullet solution’
According to Ms Rowell, there is “no one silver bullet solution” to reversing the decline in the national beef herd and increasing productivity in the sector.
But it would be “utterly perverse” from a security, quality and environmental perspective to risk losing a critical part of the national food system and accept an increase in overseas red meat imports, she said.
QMS plans to ‘encourage action’
In the coming months QMS will be “working with partners to raise awareness, engage with and support producers and traders, politicians and decision-makers, and consumers to boost confidence in our at-home market opportunity and encourage action”.
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