Fraser of Allander (FoA) Institute research findings published today show a jump in confidence among Scottish businesses.
In one of the first major post-general election surveys of firms north of the border, the report highlights a more upbeat outlook for the next six months after a challenging end to 2019.
The influential think-tank concludes the election has provided clarity for firms amid continued growth.
But FoA director Professor Graeme Roy said last night there was little sign of a significant “Boris bounce”.
A majority of businesses, particularly larger firms, are expecting turnover in the coming months to be higher.
Expectations of growth for the wider Scottish economy over the next year have also improved, with more firms believing it will be moderate, and less believing it will be weak.
The Business Monitor – produced in a partnership between FoI and law firm Addleshaw Goddard – is based on responses from around 500 businesses in a range of sectors.
It says the outlooks for business activity and employment are at their highest level since 2014.
Business activity over the last three months of 2019 was “positive but fragile” as the Scottish economy grew by 0.3% over the quarter and 0.7% over the year.
This compares to UK gross domestic product growth of 0.4% and 1.1%.
New activity is weaker than a year ago north of the border, but expectations of future new business are “optimistic across all sizes of enterprise”, the think-tank says.
But FoA also warns that businesses remain cautious about how Brexit may impact on them, with knock-on implications for investment, staffing and growth.
Capital investment fell during the final quarter of 2019, with a net balance of 9% of firms reporting a decrease. A majority of businesses (76%) expect costs to increase over the next six months. Exports have fallen deeper into negative territory (-11%) and expectations for future overseas trade “remain poor”.