Currency investors are starting to factor in the possibility that Scotland may not be part of the UK for much longer.
Until now, independence north of the border has been at best a slight risk for most money managers due to opinion polls showing more than 50% of Scots want to remain part of the UK.
But, with less than two months to go until the referendum, there are now signs within currency markets that a surprise vote in favour of separation poses a risk to sterling.
Some investors have started to buy options allowing them to protect themselves against the possibility of a Yes vote.
Sterling has gained 3.5% against the US dollar in the past six months to move to a shade below $1.72, its highest level in nearly six years, as investors focus on the prospect of higher UK interest rates, given a robust economic recovery.
But forecasts for how the markets could look a few months from now are showing increasing nervousness about the strength of the UK’s currency.
This trend is likely to pick up in coming weeks, analysts said yesterday.
Peter Kinsella, currency strategist at German banking group Commerzbank, said some investors were taking the “pretty cheap” option of hedging against the “outside chance” of a Yes vote.
According to analysts at French banking giant BNP Paribas, the referendum will deliver a shock to sterling whatever the outcome.
“Even a No vote will herald a new era, one that could spell uncertainty for sterling,” they said,” adding: “A No vote on September 18 will not be a continuation of the status quo in our view, given the push for devolution by the Scottish National Party.”
Analysts at multinational financial services group Morgan Stanley said a Yes vote could cause sterling to slip by up to 10%, losing its gains over the past year.
Adam Myers, a currency strategist at France’s Credit Agricole, said the referendum was discussed for the first time at a morning trading meeting yesterday.
The market consensus appeared to be that the economic ramifications of a Yes or No vote were evenly balanced, he added.