Retail experts have warned a £150million development could have a “significant” effect on trade in neighbouring north-east towns.
Ellon, Balmedie, Danestone and even Aberdeen city centre could suffer a slump in trade if the expansion of Blackdog goes ahead.
Plans for a new town centre – which include a cinema, hotel, shops and a regional food hall – are being progressed by Ashfield Land, alongside another application for 550 homes.
But in an independent retail analysis commissioned by Aberdeenshire Council, there are concerns the development could take shoppers away from neighbouring towns.
The report by Hargest Planning Ltd (HPL) also adds Aberdeen’s four cinemas could experience a “shift of trade” with the proposed 850-seater picture house at Blackdog.
Despite the forecast however, locals said if the development was approved, it would not be to “Ellon’s loss”.
The HPL impact analysis calculates an 8% impact on convenience goods in Ellon and further impacts in Danestone and Dyce in Aberdeen.
It states: “Indeed given that the retail offer in Ellon includes some specialist independent convenience retailers it is unrealistic to assume that there will be no impact on Ellon from the regional food hall.
“The current proposals comprise all three elements and, both separately and in combination, they will have impacts on existing centres.
“If the intention is to only serve the local population in Blackdog and adjoining villages then consideration should be given to limiting the maximum size of the retail unit.
“This is unlikely to be acceptable to the applicants. Therefore the alternative approach is to recognise that the catchment will be significantly larger than is suggested in the retail impact assessment and will result in significant trade diversion from Ellon, Middleton Park and Danestore in particular.”
However, acting on behalf of Ashfield Land, Scott Hobbs Planning (SHP), said the food hall had been “reduced in scale” and accused the researchers of using “alarmist headline figures”.
The firm admitted that a “significant diversion” in retail would be felt in Danestone, with 5% of the Blackdog development’s turnover coming from the area.
SHP also said 70% of the turnover from the development would come from the city centre, with 9% sourced from centres at Ellon, Middleton Park and Danestone.
A statement from the firm said: “Elsewhere, centres more local to the catchment area zones will experience some limited trade diversions, including Berryden, Kittybrewster and Beach Boulevard.
“Peterhead and Inverurie would experience an impact of 3% each, resulting in residual turnovers of £30million and £63million respectively.
“Comparison retailing within Ellon town centre is focused on smaller specialist units and the proposed development is unlikely to compete directly with these units.
“Ellon town centre remains in good health, with just one vacancy currently and signs of recent investment.”
Last night Andrew Walker, owner of Suited and Booted in Ellon, said: “I don’t think it will really affect us as we are very specialised.
“People come to Ellon specifically for the small independent shops – we give a high-quality service better than most of the big retail parks.
“Customers still want to come in and feel, touch and try-on goods. The people that come out to visit our shop will stay and shop elsewhere in Ellon too, so the other businesses also benefit.”
Chairman of burgeoning community group Ellon Matters, Peter Mackie, said the two town centres could exist side by side.
He also said there would be potential for further retail development in the future following the construction of the Aberdeen bypass.
He added: “I believe that trade will get trade. I think with the bypass and the Tipperty-Balmedie dual carriageway, we need to get together and figure out how we use this new road. Blackdog’s gain is not going to be our loss.
“Ellon has quite a big population. We really do deserve to have a real retail complex in our town, but not at the minute.”
