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Analysis: What does Torry and Ferryhill by-election result mean for Aberdeen South battle?

Marischal College
Marischal College

National party bosses will be closely scrutinising the result in Torry and Ferryhill, with the Aberdeen ward a key battleground in the marginal Aberdeen South constituency.

The city Westminster seat has changed hands numerous times over the years with Labour, Conservative and SNP members all being elected as representatives.

The Tories, who currently hold Aberdeen South, may be seeing the nationalists achieving nearly 600 more votes, on a turnout of only 3,753, as a bad omen for December’s national election.

Voters mostly turned to either the Conservatives or the SNP in the ward, however it remains to be seen how other parts of the Westminster seat will fare.

Due to the complex constitutional issues in current politics, nationalist support will likely rally around the SNP but it is tough to predict where unionist votes – where the majority backed a No vote in 2014 – will go.

Brexit will loom large, with those favouring exiting the UK left with the Tories while remainers could be split between Labour, Liberal Democrat and SNP.

Labour’s vote, in a seat which was held by the party’s Dame Anne Begg until 2015, has collapsed, although the Liberal Democrats did not do enough- even with a national bounce- to push the beleaguered party into fourth as they did in the recent Bridge of Don by-election.

Conservative Aberdeen South candidate Douglas Lumsden has urged unionists to lend their votes to the Tories.

But his rival, SNP group leader Stephen Flynn, said: “This is a last desperate attempt from a party in complete disarray to secure a reputation in the city.”