The north of Scotland must “hold its nerve for another month or two” before it can begin to think about the relaxation of coronavirus lockdown measures, an expert has warned.
Professor Hugh Pennington says the regions are in a “favourable” position in terms of case numbers but there are many factors at play across the country.
The Aberdeen University microbiologist said: “So far all the statistics are going in the right direction.
“The number of people vaccinated and the number of new cases are quite different and obviously both very important. They are definitely going in the right direction.
“The number of deaths registered is three weeks in arrears but even the number of people in hospital is going down.
“Certainly in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire we are getting back to a more reassuring situation, but we are not there yet.
“We have to hold our nerve for another month or two before we can really start talking about the next steps.
“The number of cases is still more than just a handful.
“When we get to that point we can get more strict about self-isolation rules – one of the main issues so far.
“Have the incentives given to people told to self-isolate been good enough?”
Prof Pennington has been a long-term advocate of the introduction of quarantine hotels such as those used successfully in Australia and New Zealand in the early stages of the pandemic.
Vaccine rollout is essential
He welcomes the introduction this week of a mandatory 10-day quarantine period for arrivals by air into Scotland, but maintains more needs to be done to ensure those told to self-isolate within the community do so.
“We’ve got to make it as easy for people as possible to do that,” he added.
“That’s one very good way or getting rid or the virus.”
He said another crucial step in eradicating the virus will be the ongoing vaccine roll-out, which so far has reached more than one million Scots.
Prof Pennington added: “There were one or two hiccups at the beginning, debates about who was doing it faster and lots of comparisons, which was all a bit pathetic to be honest.
“It’s a very big endeavour and it would be amazing if it all went exactly to plan with no roughness around the edges, really.
“The only limiting factor is not how many vaccinators we have or how many centres, it is the supply of the vaccines themselves.
“We are in the hands of the manufacturers. They can only make so much every day and it all needs to be checked.
“It is not a trivial thing. It’s quite a complicated and scientific exercise to make sure it is safe.”
He added it was “no surprise” there had been no reports of any serious side effects from the jabs so far and agreed with the Scottish Government’s latest warning that vaccination numbers may dip in the coming weeks.
“I think the First Minister is issuing a note of caution about that, which is wise,” he said.
“There’s the issue of people needing a second dose in two-and-a-half weeks’ time and the other issue is that manufacturers are not just making vaccines for the UK but for the rest of the world too.”
Measured approach needed
In the short term, however, Prof Pennington hopes to see the reopening of schools followed by hospitality sectors too.
“Schools are very important because clearly there’s a big worry about the educational deficit,” he said.
“A whole generation of children are missing out on their education and that’s going to have a long-term impact, so that has to be top of the list once we see the statistics coming down and the vaccine roll-out progressing.
“Hotels, meanwhile, might be happy that the quarantine brings some of them back into business.
“Then we can start with restaurants and even pubs – but they will be lower down the list than schools.
“A measured approach to doing it would be best; chipping away at it bit by bit and seeing what happens.”
