A new high-level strategy to combat a north-east winter spike in Covid-19 could help pull the region through the “real tough times ahead”, health service bosses have said.
NHS Grampian’s Re-mobilisation Plan has been published in response to a predicted seasonal rise in coronavirus cases and concern that could overwhelm the health service.
The new plan aims to safeguard patients in the event of any second Covid-19 outbreak between November and March, while providing a framework in which other critical services can be protected.
It also sets out how the health service would cope with a reduction in staff, reduced bed capacity and any increase in respiratory infections during the winter months.
Dr Nick Fluck, medical director of NHS Grampian, said responding to a second wave of Covid-19 is “absolutely is a worry” for the health board.
He said: “Broadly, we are always thinking ‘Will we be able to respond and how big will the response be?’.
“We now know much more about it and have a feel about how we can manage, but responding at this time requires us to have all the plates spinning – and it still comes with a pretty hefty degree of uncertainty because we have to put every asset we have to Covid-related care.”
Adam Coldwells, director of strategy and deputy chief executive of NHS Grampian, said the health board has had a “fabulous response” from the north-east population in terms of complying with Covid-19 measures, but nonetheless worries about the ability of staff and people to continue the effort until March.
He said: “I think the worry is about the stamina of our population and our staff to keep living through this time.
“We’re really trying to support our staff to keep going through this and be resilient through the coming months – because it could be a real tough time ahead of us.”
Dr Fluck pointed to a rise in unscheduled medical care problems during harsh winter months, particularly respiratory illness and cardiovascular illness that will result in a variation of around hospital 100 beds and push demand on the system to the maximum.
In the worst-case scenario of a bad Covid-19 outbreak, Dr Fluck said it will add pressure to all critical services, such as cancer treatment and maternity services.
He said: “In the first wave the peak we reached was about 20% of the top of the worst case scenario, which was fantastic.
“But we’re working on tighter margins this time, which makes it more likely that you might reach the peak.
“At the moment, I don’t predict that it will reach a point of overwhelming our system.
“Where I think there is less certainty is where the real winter pressure kicks off, just after Christmas, because of a possible harsh winter where we don’t know whether Covid-19 will peak and come down or whether there will be a further higher peak.
“But I do feel comfortable that we can cope with that. Where the tension comes is about what impact it has on the remobilisation of other services.”
