The Northern Isles have been a Liberal stronghold for many decades.
But despite this long-established political tradition, Orkney and Shetland have come under sustained attack from the SNP. And, four and a half years ago, the sitting Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael was perilously close to losing his seat.
Nicola Sturgeon’s party will draw hope from the 2015 General Election when the Nationalists slashed the Lib Dems’ majority from 9,928 to just 817 votes.
The SNP surge after the 2014 independence referendum put Mr Carmichael, a former Scottish Secretary, under severe pressure.
That pressure intensified after the 2015 election when there was a crowd-funded attempt by independence supporters to unseat the Lib Dem.
Mr Carmichael faced a legal case brought against him by four constituents who had challenged his election victory after he lied about the leak of a civil service memo.
Mr Carmichael authorised the leak, recording allegations that Nicola Sturgeon secretly wanted David Cameron to win the 2015 general election. Ms Sturgeon denied the allegations. Mr Carmichael survived the bid to oust him.
Click a constituency to read more
Since then he has managed to shore up his support. He now defends the 4,563 majority he won in the 2017 snap election. Nevertheless, the SNP candidate Robert Leslie is keen to take a notable scalp.
As ever, the election in the UK’s most northerly constituency will be fought on its own distinctive issues, most of which relate to the particular challenges faced by island communities.
Prominent among those will be the high cost of travel from the islands to the mainland and the anger over car-parking charges at Sumburgh Airport.
The failure of the Scottish Government to implement a Road Equivalent Tariff (RET) on island ferry routes and plans to centralise Air Traffic Control will feature on the doorsteps.
Given the remote nature of the constituency’s location, there is also concern about centralisation of the emergency services and lacklustre broadband coverage.
Brexit features as an issue especially in relation to fishing and farming tariffs. But given that almost 60% voted to Remain, that should work in the Lib Dems’ favour.
However, Lib Dem canvassers are finding that the predominant constitutional issue is the question of a second Scottish independence referendum.
The prospect of a second independence vote appears to be trumping Brexit as the touchstone issue. Perhaps that is unsurprising given the strength of the No vote in the 2014 independence referendum. Back then Orkney voted 67% No and Shetland wasn’t far behind with 64%.
A further indication of how tough the seat will be for the SNP to crack came just a few weeks ago in the Holyrood by-election for Shetland.
The SNP spent an enormous sum of £99,000 in its failed bid to win the seat. That was more than the £90,000 the Nationalists spent on campaigning for a Remain vote in the whole of the 2016 Brexit referendum.
But, despite Mr Carmichael’s past difficulties this should be a hold for the Lib Dems.
PREDICTION: LIB DEM HOLD
