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New poll shows surge in SNP support in build-up to Scottish election

Nicola Sturgeon
Nicola Sturgeon

The SNP could win up to 78 seats in next year’s Scottish Parliament elections, according to new research.

A TNS poll found that support for the nationalists has increased since the party’s general election landslide with 60% stating they planned to back the party in the Holyrood constituency vote.

The party got 45% of the constituency vote in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections and 50% of the vote in May.

In contrast Labour’s support has fallen from 32% in the constituency section of the 2011 election to just 19%.

The Conservatives increased from 14% to 15%, while the Liberal Democrats were down from 8% to 5%, with the remainder split among other parties.

When asked about the list vote, which elects additional MSPs for eight regions, 50% said they planned to back the SNP, 19% Labour, 14% Conservative, 10% Greens, 5% Lib Dem, 2% Ukip and 2% to other parties.

A party insider said the results could translate into 74 to 78 of the 129 available seats across Scotland, compared to the 64 currently held by the SNP.

The research also found that almost half of respondents (49%) would vote to stay in the EU in the forthcoming in/out referendum on UK membership, compared to 19% who would vote to leave and 26% who were undecided.

Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, said: “Clearly there is a long way to go until the Scottish Parliament elections, so it is too early to tell whether the rise in support for the SNP represents a continuing trend or whether it reflects a honeymoon period with the party’s new Westminster MPs.”

SNP MSP Stewart Maxwell said: “This is an excellent poll, highlighting the SNP’s extraordinarily positive ratings after eight years in government.”

A spokesman for Scottish Labour said: “We are just a few weeks removed from one of the most painful defeats in the Labour Party’s history, both in Scotland and right across the UK. Rebuilding our movement will take time.”

A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said: “This poll shows our support is solid. We now need to build on that ahead of next year’s election to become the only pro-union alternative to the SNP in Scotland.”