The head of intelligence at NHS Grampian believes the country is in a “very good position” to have lockdown restrictions eased.
Nicola Sturgeon will today reveal the next stage of her route out of lockdown and is expected to set out the dates for lifting the stay-at-home rule while offering some hope to the retail and hospitality sectors.
Speaking on BBC’s Good Morning Scotland, Professor Jillian Evans said she thinks the time is right as case numbers are looking “very positive”.
Prof Evans, who is head of intelligence for NHS Grampian, stressed it was “inevitable” that when people start mixing again there will be small pockets of cases and said it was important to keep the R-rate below one and get as many people vaccinated as possible.
But she added: “The numbers are looking very positive at the moment. By and large these numbers look fairly stable, with some small pockets in parts of the country.
“The case positivity rate is stable and infections are levelling off.
“These three things suggest to me that we’re in a very good position to have the restrictions eased.”
What we might see in Sturgeon’s update today
Prof Evans stressed she had not been briefed on what the first minister will say this afternoon, but admitted she thought some restrictions may well be lifted earlier than the original plan of late April.
She suggested there may be good news around the number of people who can gather at once – although thought it may remain two households, but with an increase in numbers.
She also believes the definition of non-essential shopping may be relaxed.
Although children are now allowed to travel outwith their local authority area for sports training, Prof Evans said she “instinctively” believes the rule will not be fully relaxed until the end of April, although said it may “possibly” be sooner.
She added that the original route map Ms Sturgeon revealed on February 23 suggested that the government wanted 50% of the population to be vaccinated before restrictions eased enough for people to see a “noticeable difference”.
“We’re not far off that now,” she said. “With the increase in vaccination supplies, we’ll reach that soon. Vaccination is the way out of this.”
Cases closely monitored
Prof Evans said the return of schools may have resulted in an increase in cases, along with people still going into work.
In Grampian, cases have recently been confirmed at Portsoy Nursery and Primary and Mile End School in Aberdeen while an entire class and two teachers at Smithton Primary in Inverness are currently self-isolating.
In Shetland, Mossbank Primary was shut for a deep clean yesterday due to a positive test.
Prof Evans said: “In my own area, we’ve seen situations with schools and work places, but the case numbers are so low that we can get right in there and do contact tracing and manage situations fully.
“If we see a sudden blip in the numbers, it’s the result of an incident or an outbreak. It’s the gradual increase of numbers that make us worry that there’s something wider in the community.”
‘Minimise further harm’: Rangers fans urged to get tested
Prof Evans said it was still too early to judge the real damage caused by Rangers fans who celebrated becoming Scottish champions by congregating in Glasgow’s George Square and Ibrox earlier this month.
But she urged anyone who had been in the area, or had mixed with someone who was, to go to a community testing centre to “minimise any further harm”.
“We may still see the result of transmission from that this week,” she said. “Numbers in Greater Glasgow and Clyde did go up last week.
“There was crowding, but it was outside – which is good. But there was lots of shouting, which is not good. The public health message here is if you were around, or have been with people that were, be vigilant and go to a community testing facility.”
Discussions are still ongoing as to whether the Old Firm match scheduled for Sunday.
The Scottish Government has insisted it will not be allowed unless both Rangers and Celtic ensure fans take the stay at home message seriously.