Aberdeen scientists have taken part in a study which uses online search data to predict chicken pox epidemics.
The new research shows that Google data trends are effective in predicting where and when outbreaks of the childhood disease will occur.
The research group, including Aberdeen University’s Tyler Stevenson, found people frequently turn to Google when the disease is prevalent.
This helped the team pinpoint when epidemics occur and anticipate future outbreaks.
Importantly, the academics – from the universities of Glasgow, Michigan and Princeton University – also found that in countries with mandated chicken pox vaccination, like the US, the seasonal epidemics of chicken pox have been lost.
Examining data from 36 countries, the study found that Google searches for chicken pox follow seasonal cycles that match the annual occurrence of chicken pox in children.
Using data from the few countries that do report clinical cases of the ailment, researchers confirmed that the Google searches accurately reflected the distribution of the virus in the population.
The study therefore highlighted how online data is a valuable tool for tracking illnesses in countries that have access to online resources.
Since these search trends were found to be an accurate indicator of actual chicken pox infections, the researchers built a statistical model which could forecast when future cases would occur.
It is hoped a similar model could be used by public health officials to predict future severe outbreaks.
Mr Stevenson said: “This research provides a powerful and novel method to examine the global seasonality of chicken pox, and provides initial evidence of similar patterns for other childhood infectious diseases.”
