The politics of the New Year have started with a bang and for once it’s not just about the dreadful pandemic.
The Scottish Labour Party is changing its leader and if, as I suspect and hope, it will be Anas Sarwar then together with Keir Starmer the Party might be back in the fight again. But it is not this leadership battle that is likely to make most waves in the coming months. It is the struggle within the SNP brought about by the conflict between Nicola Sturgeon and her mentor Alex Salmond.
I knew Alex Salmond as an MP in Parliament and although his constant focus on the constitution did not win him many friends, he was an able and effective MP.
I don’t know Nicola Sturgeon personally and, as with Salmond, I don’t think her focus on the constitution is either a good idea or desirable at the height of a public health crisis – but I admire her skill in handling the media. She is very effective at getting her message over about the pandemic and doing so in a sympathetic and understanding way.
Extraordinary struggle
I don’t admire her policies even on this issue. Both Scotland (and the UK) have recorded some of the highest death rates in Europe probably because of the failure to deal effectively with outbreaks in the care homes. I also fear that education, health and the economy of Scotland have suffered badly under SNP control but that is not what is catching my attention today.
What started as a series of allegations of sexual misconduct against Salmond has turned into this extraordinary struggle between two of the most important people in Scottish politics. The gross mishandling of the complaints and the following abandonment of the civil court case has not only cost the Scottish taxpayer over half a million pounds but continues to wrap the politics of Holyrood in a web of intrigue and allegation as briefings and counter briefings damage Scottish politics as well as the two main protagonists.
It is not just the big political issues that bring down governments but also the internal struggles over matters that do not at first seem to be of critical political importance. Despite Sturgeon’s high public ratings, she is now vulnerable.
Salmond’s ‘bombshell’ accusation against Sturgeon could ‘end her political career’
In their fight to the finish neither of them seem to have recognised just how much pain this must be causing the women who made the original complaints against Salmond. I suspect they must feel like pawns in a chess game that is now totally out of their control.
Manoeuvrings
You might feel that however unfair this is, it is all overshadowed by Sturgeon’s handling of the pandemic in the media and therefore won’t damage her. But wait a minute – the SNP is not only losing some of its MSPs who have decided not to stand again but there are also manoeuvrings within the Party – hardly surprising given the intensity of this battle.
Even this pandemic will not go on forever and as politics returns to normal the serious mishandling of this crisis will be compounded by a greater focus on failings in education, health and the economy. The elections in May might still be dominated by Covid and Sturgeon’s high ratings might carry her through but the SNP looks increasingly like a one-woman band and that in my experience of politics cannot go on for long.
So, will Nicola Sturgeon still be first Minister after May? I don’t know but she is not as secure as she once was and others are now saying the same. Mandy Rhodes that very observant and experienced editor of Holyrood’s current affairs magazine has also noticed it. Others are also asking how much longer before Sturgeon steps down?
The pressure on her, both political and personal, is enormous. It even involves her home life as her husband has become part of the story. Politics is a tough trade and right now it must be very tough for her. My guess is she will be gone before the end of this year – possibly even before May.
When things spin out of control in politics events move fast!
Clive Soley is a former MP and chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party who is now vice-chair of the Scottish Peers Association and a member of the House of Lords EU Select sub committee on home affairs. He lives in the Highlands.
