The notion that Nicola Sturgeon might choose St George’s Day to announce her next independence crusade caused a few wry comments during the Easter Break at Holyrood.
To some it conjured visions of the first minister using the sword of independence to slay the Brexit dragon. Others reflected on the irony that Ms Sturgeon’s latest attempt to break away from England could come on next week’s day of patriotism for the Auld Enemy.
Then there were those wanting to pay homage to Catalonia, who thought it might be an appropriate moment given that St George also happens to be patron saint of a place that is locked in its own secession battle with Spain.
Speculation that Ms Sturgeon might make her eagerly awaited “what happens next” indyref2 statement on St George’s Day arose when the first minister reacted to last week’s Brexit extension.
She said she would reveal her thinking on the impact of Brexit mechanisations on her ambition for a second independence referendum after the Scottish Parliament’s Easter recess.
The first day of the new Holyrood term after Easter is Tuesday 23rd April, which just happens to be the great English day of celebration.
Ms Sturgeon may or may not make her indy statement then, but what we can be assured is that she will do soon, certainly within the next couple of weeks.
And when she does so, it will grab the headlines and be the subject of endless posturing over the rights and wrongs of sending Scotland head-on into yet another divisive plebiscite as the UK still struggles to come to terms with Brexit.
To some the very suggestion of indyref2 is greeted with utter dismay. Indeed, it has already proved the most effective recruiting sergeant that the Scottish Tories have had at their disposal since their 1997 Scottish wipe-out.
Despite Theresa May’s botched handling of Brexit and the damaging divisions it has opened up, the prospect of another vote is likely to harden support for Ruth Davidson from the hardcore Unionists. Scottish Labour appears to be in disarray. Therefore for Ms Davidson, shortly to return to the frontline from maternity leave, there is also the prospect of picking up those disaffected Labour voters whose horror of independence may just about trump their long-standing aversion to the Tories.
But as preparations are made, yet another first ministerial statement on a second poll will re-open the traditional fault line between Nationalists and Unionists, the SNP is having to cope with a fissure within its own ranks.
Last week saw nationalists including the Western Isles MP Brendan MacNeil and Chris McEleny, a member of the SNP’s ruling National Executive, urge Ms Sturgeon to take a more gung-ho approach to independence.
Mr McEleny, a former SNP depute leader candidate, at least appeared to be of the belief that an independence referendum should be held before the UK’s new extended Brexit deadline of October 31. The rationale appeared to be that Mrs May’s difficulty is Ms Sturgeon’s opportunity.
Holding the poll before the end of October would “allow the 200,000 EU nationals who live here to vote in it and allow Scotland to choose its own future with Europe,” was how Mr McEleny put it.
Meanwhile Mr MacNeil was unable to contain his frustration at the wait and see approach adopted so far by the first minister.
“Now that we know the path the UK is taking …time to give a window for #indyref2 – get the campaign going and then name the date. We can’t have another announcement about an announcement?? Can we???,” he asked on Twitter.
The strong suspicion, however, is that when Ms Sturgeon addresses Mr MacNeil’s question in the next couple of weeks her answer will cause him more angst.
“Another announcement about an announcement” is likely to be the formula that Ms Sturgeon resorts to. The first minister has made a habit of hedging her bets on the question. Perhaps Ms Sturgeon will demand the power to hold a referendum in an attempt to keep her grassroots happy. But it is difficult to see how she can make a bold announcement on the timing of any such vote.
Previously she has stuck to the line that she would give her update when there was clarity over Brexit. But how Brexit will pan out is still as clear as mud. Therefore the clamour for action is likely to be ignored in favour of a more cautious approach.
In a further twist, the SNP has thrown its weight behind a so-called People’s Vote on Mrs May’s deal.
To the irritation of the independence fundamentalists, it looks as though the SNP is prioritising a second EU referendum over a second Scottish independence referendum.
Adding to the complexity of the situation is the internal debate within the SNP over the old chestnut of how an independent Scotland would treat the currency issue. When the party meets for its Spring Conference in Edinburgh at the end of this month, the issue will be aired once again.
Those objecting to the SNP’s Growth Commission proposal to adopt a separate Scottish currency subject to stringent economic tests being met will be on the march. So will be those wanting a bit of action on indyref2.
Much still needs to be sorted out before Ms Sturgeon is in a position to account for the Brexit dragon.
Tom Peterkin is the Press and Journal’s political editor
