Calendar An icon of a desk calendar. Cancel An icon of a circle with a diagonal line across. Caret An icon of a block arrow pointing to the right. Email An icon of a paper envelope. Facebook An icon of the Facebook "f" mark. Google An icon of the Google "G" mark. Linked In An icon of the Linked In "in" mark. Logout An icon representing logout. Profile An icon that resembles human head and shoulders. Telephone An icon of a traditional telephone receiver. Tick An icon of a tick mark. Is Public An icon of a human eye and eyelashes. Is Not Public An icon of a human eye and eyelashes with a diagonal line through it. Pause Icon A two-lined pause icon for stopping interactions. Quote Mark A opening quote mark. Quote Mark A closing quote mark. Arrow An icon of an arrow. Folder An icon of a paper folder. Breaking An icon of an exclamation mark on a circular background. Camera An icon of a digital camera. Caret An icon of a caret arrow. Clock An icon of a clock face. Close An icon of the an X shape. Close Icon An icon used to represent where to interact to collapse or dismiss a component Comment An icon of a speech bubble. Comments An icon of a speech bubble, denoting user comments. Comments An icon of a speech bubble, denoting user comments. Ellipsis An icon of 3 horizontal dots. Envelope An icon of a paper envelope. Facebook An icon of a facebook f logo. Camera An icon of a digital camera. Home An icon of a house. Instagram An icon of the Instagram logo. LinkedIn An icon of the LinkedIn logo. Magnifying Glass An icon of a magnifying glass. Search Icon A magnifying glass icon that is used to represent the function of searching. Menu An icon of 3 horizontal lines. Hamburger Menu Icon An icon used to represent a collapsed menu. Next An icon of an arrow pointing to the right. Notice An explanation mark centred inside a circle. Previous An icon of an arrow pointing to the left. Rating An icon of a star. Tag An icon of a tag. Twitter An icon of the Twitter logo. Video Camera An icon of a video camera shape. Speech Bubble Icon A icon displaying a speech bubble WhatsApp An icon of the WhatsApp logo. Information An icon of an information logo. Plus A mathematical 'plus' symbol. Duration An icon indicating Time. Success Tick An icon of a green tick. Success Tick Timeout An icon of a greyed out success tick. Loading Spinner An icon of a loading spinner. Facebook Messenger An icon of the facebook messenger app logo. Facebook An icon of a facebook f logo. Facebook Messenger An icon of the Twitter app logo. LinkedIn An icon of the LinkedIn logo. WhatsApp Messenger An icon of the Whatsapp messenger app logo. Email An icon of an mail envelope. Copy link A decentered black square over a white square.

Covid Christmas: Will your area be a coronavirus hotspot on December 25?

A man dressed as Santa as people do some last minute Christmas shopping in Glasgow.
A man dressed as Santa as people do some last minute Christmas shopping in Glasgow.

Several areas of Scotland face a more than 90% chance of being a coronavirus “hotspot” on Christmas day, according to researchers.

An online calculator created by Imperial College London predicts which Scottish local authority areas have the greatest probability of cases rising above 100 per 100,000 people on December 25.

According to the tool, Clackmannanshire has the highest risk of being a Covid-19 hotspot over Christmas, at 94%, but both Fife and North Ayrshire also sit well within the danger zone, both being set at 92%.

Aberdeen has an 82% probability, while neighbouring Aberdeenshire comes in at 36%.

In Tayside Dundee has the highest probability, at 57%, while Perth and Kinross came in at 44% and Angus at 14%.

Some areas, including Orkney, Moray and Shetland and the Highlands, are deemed to have a 0% risk of becoming a hotspot over the festive period, while the Western Isles have been given a 1% chance.

Dundee City Centre.

Edinburgh and Glasgow, which have been both seen an influx of Christmas shoppers in recent days, have an 80% and 64% chance of being virus hotspots, respectively.

The Imperial College London calculator uses data on daily reported cases, weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to report probabilities. It assumes no change in current restrictions in the lead up to Christmas.

Coronavirus Christmas hotspot
Shoppers get the last shopping Saturday before Christmas underway with thousands of people in Glasgow’s Buchanan Street.

It has been reported that meet-ups over the festive season hang in the balance as ministers from across the UK attempt to reach a four-nations agreement on how to handle warnings of a surge of infections in the new year.

Talks were to resume on Wednesday following a lengthy telephone call on Tuesday night, and while it is not anticipated that regulations will be changed drastically, ministers are considering issuing much stricter guidance.

This could include further information on how to keep safe, on limiting travel and keeping ‘bubbles’ – the number of people each individual is allowed to meet – as small as possible over the period of easing.

Coronavirus Christmas hotspot

The inter-governmental talks have been held as concerns grow about a new strain of the virus first detected in the south of England. Nine cases of the new strain have now been identified in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde health board area.

Concerns about Christmas triggering an acceleration of the virus were also raised by two leading medical journals. The Health Service Journal and the British Medical Journal warned people might see it “as permission to drop their guard”.

‘Great big risk’

Meanwhile, public health officials warned Scotland must learn lessons for Christmas following a surge in coronavirus cases and deaths in the United States linked to family celebrations over Thanksgiving.


  • The chances of your area being a coronavirus Christmas hotspot, according to the calculator:

    • Aberdeen City – 82%
    • Aberdeenshire – 36%
    • Angus – 14%
    • Argyll and Bute – 18%
    • Clackmannanshire – 94%
    • Na h-Eileanan an lar – 1%
    • Dumfries and Galloway – 0%
    • Dundee City – 57%
    • East Ayrshire – 84%
    • East Dunbartonshire – 14%
    • East Lothian – 78%
    • East Renfrewshire – 50%
    • Edinburgh City – 80%
    • Falkirk – 42%
    • Fife – 92%
    • Glasgow City – 64%
    • Highland – 0%
    • Inverclyde – 10%
    • Midlothian – 73%
    • Moray – 0%
    • North Ayrshire – 92%
    • North Lanarkshire – 45%
    • Orkney – 0%
    • Perth and Kinross – 44%
    • Renfrewshire – 37%
    • Scottish Borders – 26%
    • Shetland Islands – 0%
    • South Ayrshire – 34%
    • South Lanarkshire – 40%
    • Stirling – 16%
    • West Dunbartonshire – 9%
    • West Lothian – 35%

An expected sharp rise in new infections appears to have arrived in the US just two weeks after families came together for the holiday, with official figures topping out at more than 200,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths per day.

The number of new cases is up 30% from a fortnight ago, deaths have surged by more than two thirds and hospitalisations have increased by 19%. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is projecting at least 332,000 deaths by January 2.

Stephen Reicher, professor of social psychology at St Andrews University and an adviser to both the UK and Scottish governments, warned that data from Thanksgiving show there is a “great big risk” at Christmas.

Coronavirus Christmas hotspot
Stephen Reicher, professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews.

“It certainly looks as if there is a steeper increase in infections coming about two weeks after Thanksgiving, both in Canada and the USA,” he said. “And so it makes that fairly obvious point that the more we mix, the more we’re going to get infections.

“Of course, that’s exacerbated when infection levels are already relatively high – the more you have the virus, the more mixing is a problem.

“I think that what it tells us is fairly common sense, which is that the more we mix, the more trouble we’re going to be in. It’s not just a hypothetical, it seems actually to be happening.”