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Scottish independence: Support for the union edges ahead

Scottish independence poll
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Scots are still split on the constitution but more people appear to be shifting towards the union, our exclusive election polling shows.

Findings from Survation suggest a second independence referendum would end with a 52-48 victory in favour of staying in the UK.

Support for independence slipped by one point while a No vote gained a point compared to the last Survation poll, in April.

But with the result still so finely balanced, it is clear the election campaign has failed to significantly shift the dial on public opinion.

The results, which exclude people who said they do not know which way they would vote, were based on more than 1,000 responses from adults in Scotland.

Regionally, the findings suggest differences across Scotland, with majority support for independence in the Highland, and Mid Scotland and Fife. Support for the union appeared higher in the North East.

People aged 16-24 were the most likely to back independence at 69% support. There appears to be a majority in favour of independence among people under the age of 44, which then turns towards the union among people aged over 45.

Scottish election polling

The poll is part of our wider exclusive research from Survation, which also suggests the SNP are still on course for a slim majority at the election on Thursday.

When the results are applied to potential seats won at the election, the balance in favour of a referendum between the SNP and Greens could total 77 of the 129 MSPs in the chamber.

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