Support for a Yes vote in a referendum on Scottish independence is at 51%, while the SNP maintain a strong lead over other parties, an opinion poll suggests.
The Opinium poll for Sky News put the SNP at 46% for the constituency vote and 42% on the regional list vote ahead of May’s election, meaning they could gain one more seat but fall short of a majority.
The poll found the Conservatives were on 24% of the constituency vote, with Labour on 20%, the Lib Dems on 6% and the Greens on 4%.
On the regional list vote the SNP were on 42%, with the Tories on 22%, Labour on 19%, the Lib Dems on 5%, and the Greens on 7%.
Using a uniform swing calculator, a rough method to predict seats, the SNP would be up one from their 2016 result to up one seat to 64 seats – one seat short of a majority.
The Conservatives would be down two to 29 seats, Labour unchanged on 24 seats and the Greens up one seat to seven.
However, very small changes in party vote shares could change the seat numbers.
On Scottish independence, when “don’t knows” are excluded, Yes was on 51% and No on 49%.
With Yes ahead in opinion polls throughout much of 2020, other pollsters have found the gap has narrowed in recent weeks.
There was also division over whether people think there should be a referendum in the next five years if the SNP win a majority in May.
In that situation, the poll found 46% would support a referendum, and 48% think the opposite.
The poll also covered attitudes towards party leaders and other political figures.
Asked about “who is telling the truth” following the recent Holyrood committee sessions involving Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond, 37% said Ms Sturgeon is telling the truth, with 12% saying Mr Salmond was doing so and 31% saying neither.
If Sturgeon is found to have broken the ministerial code, more than half (51%) think she should resign, compared to over a third (35%) who think she should stay in the job.
In terms of who would make the best First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon leads with 50% of the vote, followed by Douglas Ross (12%) and Anas Sarwar (10%).
Opinium surveyed 1,096 Scottish adults between March 11 and 16. The company has not conducted a Scottish opinion poll since the 2019 general election.
Chris Curtis, senior research manager at Opinium, said: “The polling shows the future of Scotland rests on a knife-edge.
“Firstly, in terms of whether the SNP can gain a majority alone in May, which would strengthen their mandate to hold a second independence referendum.
“Secondly, in terms of what might happen in such a referendum, with Yes and No eye-wateringly close in our latest poll.
“But it is also important to note Sturgeon’s incredible popularity in Scotland.
“Despite her recent difficulties over the Salmond affair, she still has the overwhelming support of Scottish voters, driven by the fact that most think her Government has done a good job responding to the pandemic.”