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List of general election top target seats, by party

Boundary changes mean some of the top target seats at the next election are being contested for the first time (Danny Lawson/PA)
Boundary changes mean some of the top target seats at the next election are being contested for the first time (Danny Lawson/PA)

Here is a list of the top target seats for the main political parties at the next general election.

The election is being held using new constituency boundaries, which means the results cannot be compared directly with what happened at the last general election in 2019.

In order to measure how well the parties do at the next election, and to determine which seats they need to win to form a government, a set of notional results for the 2019 election has been calculated to show what would have happened if that contest had taken place using the new boundaries.

These notional results have been compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, on behalf of the PA news agency, the BBC, ITN and Sky News.

The lists of target seats are based on the size of the swing needed to gain the seat based on the notional outcome in 2019.

The top 50 targets have been listed for Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, with the top 10 for other parties (top nine for the SNP, as they can only make a maximum of nine gains).

The lists are ranked according to the size of the swing to gain, starting with the smallest.

In each case, the name of the constituency is followed (in brackets) by the notional 2019 winner of the seat, then by the size of the swing needed to gain, in percentage points.

Where appropriate, the swing takes account of the need to overtake the second placed party.

– Labour targets

1 Burnley (Con) 0.13 percentage points
2 Leigh & Atherton (Con) 0.33
3 High Peak (Con) 0.54
4 Bangor Aberconwy (Con) 0.77
5 Wolverhampton West (Con) 0.92
6 Bury South (Con) 0.94
7 Bury North (Con) 1.20
8 Bolton North East (Con) 1.28
9 Watford (Con) 1.35
10 Chingford & Woodford Green (Con) 1.47
11 Wycombe (Con) 1.59
12 Birmingham Northfield (Con) 1.69
13 Leeds North West (Con) 1.80
14 Stroud (Con) 2.03
15 Keighley & Ilkley (Con) 2.11
16 Stoke-on-Trent Central (Con) 2.11
17 Whitehaven & Workington (Con) 2.17
18 Lothian East (SNP) 2.17
19 Gedling (Con) 2.22
20 Walsall & Bloxwich (Con) 2.40
21 Peterborough (Con) 2.47
22 Vale of Glamorgan (Con) 2.57
23 West Bromwich (Con) 2.60
24 Cheshire Mid (Con) 2.66
25 Wakefield & Rothwell (Con) 2.67
26 Ynys Mon (Con) 2.69
27 Derby North (Con) 2.70
28 Bridgend (Con) 2.73
29 Clwyd North (Con) 2.76
30 Lancaster & Wyre (Con) 3.05
31 Hastings & Rye (Con) 3.36
32 Eltham & Chislehurst (Con) 3.37
33 Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy (SNP) 3.41
34 Lincoln (Con) 3.47
35 Hyndburn (Con) 3.48
36 Broxtowe (Con) 3.58
37 Chipping Barnet (Con) 3.60
38 Northampton North (Con) 3.85
39 Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor (Con) 3.93
40 Hendon (Con) 4.01
41 Truro & Falmouth (Con) 4.04
42 Wrexham (Con) 4.18
43 Hull West & Haltemprice (Con) 4.35
44 Blackpool South (Con) 4.36
45 Calder Valley (Con) 4.52
46 Milton Keynes Central (Con) 4.70
47 Southampton Itchen (Con) 4.74
48 Clwyd East (Con) 5.00
49 Glasgow North East (SNP) 5.01
50 Darlington (Con) 5.36

(PA Graphics)

– Conservative targets

1 Warrington South (Lab) 0.06 percentage points
2 Coventry North West (Lab) 0.22
3 Kensington & Bayswater (Lab) 0.36
4 Alyn & Deeside (Lab) 0.39
5 Wirral West (Lab) 0.41
6 Beckenham & Penge (Lab) 0.52
7 Heywood & Middleton North (Lab) 0.80
8 Dagenham & Rainham (Lab) 0.80
9 Coventry South (Lab) 0.86
10 Warwick & Leamington (Lab) 1.12
11 Bedford (Lab) 1.19
12 Pontefract, Castleford & Knottingley (Lab) 1.31
13 Doncaster Central (Lab) 1.38
14 Ceredigion Preseli (Plaid Cymru) 1.40
15 Rawmarsh & Conisbrough (Lab) 1.55
16 Chesterfield (Lab) 1.61
17 Oldham East & Saddleworth (Lab) 1.62
18 Warrington North (Lab) 1.63
19 Canterbury (Lab) 1.89
20 Halifax (Lab) 1.99
21 Newport West & Islwyn (Lab) 2.06
22 Perth & Kinross-shire (SNP) 2.09
23 Cramlington & Killingworth (Lab) 2.24
24 Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (SNP) 2.50
25 Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey (SNP) 2.58
26 Doncaster North (Lab) 2.58
27 Nottingham North & Kimberley (Lab) 2.89
28 Gower (Lab) 2.93
29 Leeds East (Lab) 3.06
30 Leeds West & Pudsey (Lab) 3.09
31 Wolverhampton South East (Lab) 3.10
32 Tynemouth (Lab) 3.26
33 Bradford South (Lab) 3.34
34 Croydon East (Lab) 3.37
35 Sunderland Central (Lab) 3.41
36 Stalybridge & Hyde (Lab) 3.48
37 Lothian East (SNP) 3.66
38 Hull East (Lab) 3.67
39 Houghton & Sunderland South (Lab) 3.73
40 Rotherham (Lab) 3.79
41 Putney (Lab) 3.98
42 Birmingham Erdington (Lab) 3.98
43 Worsley & Eccles (Lab) 4.00
44 Normanton & Hemsworth (Lab) 4.06
45 Llanelli (Lab) 4.32
46 Hartlepool (Lab) 4.38
47 Durham, City of (Lab) 4.54
48 Blaydon & Consett (Lab) 4.56
49 Stockton North (Lab) 4.61
50 Durham North (Lab) 4.63

(PA Graphics)

– Liberal Democrat targets

1 Carshalton & Wallington (Con) 0.64 percentage points
2 Fife North East (SNP) 0.70
3 Wimbledon (Con) 0.74
4 Sheffield Hallam (Lab) 0.92
5 Cambridgeshire South (Con) 1.25
6 Cheltenham (Con) 1.25
7 Dunbartonshire Mid (SNP) 1.70
8 Cheadle (Con) 2.09
9 Eastbourne (Con) 2.11
10 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (SNP) 2.64
11 Esher & Walton (Con) 2.68
12 Guildford (Con) 2.96
13 Lewes (Con) 3.71
14 Hazel Grove (Con) 4.18
15 Westmorland & Lonsdale (Con) 4.74
16 St Ives (Con) 4.85
17 Finchley & Golders Green (Con) 5.98
18 Cities of London & Westminster (Con) 6.05
19 Winchester (Con) 7.08
20 Taunton & Wellington (Con) 7.84
21 Harrogate & Knaresborough (Con) 7.91
22 Cambridge (Lab) 8.14
23 Sutton & Cheam (Con) 8.27
24 Woking (Con) 8.60
25 Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe (Con) 8.70
26 Eastleigh (Con) 8.72
27 Didcot & Wantage (Con) 9.22
28 Bermondsey & Old Southwark (Lab) 9.28
29 Dorking & Horley (Con) 9.52
30 Godalming & Ash (Con) 9.63
31 Dorset West (Con) 10.71
32 Chelsea & Fulham (Con) 10.82
33 Henley & Thame (Con) 11.05
34 Newbury (Con) 11.24
35 Wokingham (Con) 11.59
36 Hitchin (Con) 11.67
37 Hampstead & Highgate (Lab) 11.68
38 St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire (Con) 12.24
39 Ely & East Cambridgeshire (Con) 12.35
40 Devon South (Con) 12.66
41 Wells & Mendip Hills (Con) 12.66
42 Sussex Mid (Con) 12.90
43 Frome & East Somerset (Con) 12.92
44 Thornbury & Yate (Con) 12.96
45 Chippenham (Con) 13.06
46 Farnham & Bordon (Con) 13.27
47 Devon North (Con) 13.33
48 Glastonbury & Somerton (Con) 13.33
49 Tunbridge Wells (Con) 13.40
50 Earley & Woodley (Con) 13.48

(PA Graphics)

– Green targets

1 Bristol Central (Lab) 16.23 percentage points
2 Isle of Wight West (Con) 19.30
3 Edinburgh North & Leith (SNP) 20.26
4 Dunfermline & Dollar (SNP) 21.35
5 Frome & East Somerset (Con) 21.61
6 Isle of Wight East (Con) 21.70
7 Hampstead & Highgate (Lab) 21.99
8 Livingston (SNP) 22.34
9 Bathgate & Linlithgow (SNP) 22.46
10 East Kilbride & Strathaven (SNP) 22.48

– SNP targets

1 Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (Con) 0.79 percentage points
2 Dumfries & Galloway (Con) 1.48
3 Aberdeenshire North & Moray East (Con) 2.61
4 Edinburgh West (Lib Dem) 2.62
5 Gordon & Buchan (Con) 3.39
6 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 4.26
7 Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (Con) 4.84
8 Orkney & Shetland (Lib Dem) 5.41
9 Edinburgh South (Lab) 10.18

– Plaid Cymru targets

1 Ynys Mon (Con) 3.48 percentage points
2 Caerfyrddin (Con) 4.25
3 Llanelli (Lab) 9.53
4 Caerphilly (Lab) 14.59
5 Pontypridd (Lab) 17.87
6 Neath & Swansea East (Lab) 19.70
7 Cardiff West (Lab) 21.34
8 Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare (Lab) 21.78
9 Rhondda & Ogmore (Lab) 21.93
10 Aberafan Maesteg (Lab) 21.97

– Reform UK targets

(Based on the notional 2019 performance of the Brexit Party, as Reform UK was then called)

1 Barnsley North (Lab) 4.50 percentage points
2 Hartlepool (Lab) 5.92
3 Barnsley South (Lab) 6.29
4 Doncaster North (Lab) 12.82
5 Easington (Lab) 14.31
6 South Shields (Lab) 14.70
7 Rotherham (Lab) 16.07
8 Normanton & Hemsworth (Lab) 16.19
9 Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney (Lab) 16.20
10 Caerphilly (Lab) 16.85