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Analysis: Expect a sigh of relief from the markets following No vote

Market uncertainty has overshadowed the final weeks of the campaign.
Market uncertainty has overshadowed the final weeks of the campaign.

Markets and many business leaders will this morning breath “a sigh of relief” after Scotland voted to remain with the United Kingdom.

As the vote progressed yesterday, the pound hit a two-year high against the euro as foreign exchange traders bet along with bookmakers and pollsters that the referendum would return a “no” to the Scottish independence campaign.

Financial markets were also calm ahead of the final vote count.

The FTSE 100 index added 0.57% to 6,819.29, while only two out of 12 Scotland-based stocks in the FTSE 250 closed down last night.

Adrian Rogstad, Analyst at IHS Country Risk said: “The primary effect of Scotland’s No vote will be a huge sigh of relief, both for businesses operating across the UK and for the UK political establishment”

But the prospect of more political turmoil as unionist leaders struggle to maintain promises made to Scottish votes weighed on the positive sentiment.

Mr Rogstad added: “However, the Scots’ rejection of independence is only the beginning of a larger debate about the future of the UK’s political system.

“In their bid to prevent the Scots voting Yes, the main UK party leaders have together promised to make the devolved Scottish parliament permanent and increase its taxing and spending powers.

“This has already been met with protests from politicians within the Conservative Party who are angry at the lack of consultation with the UK Parliament and the promises of more funding to Scotland, which already receives more government spending per head than all other parts of the UK.

“Ultimately, the promises of more powers to Scotland could spark a process of federalisation in the UK, where both Wales, Northern Ireland and England or English regions are given increased autonomy and fiscal powers.”

Cavendish AM fund manager Paul Mumford said the No vote would boost oil and gas stocks that had been undermined by uncertainty ahead of the vote, including North Sea oil-focused groups Hurricane Energy and Ithaca Energy.

Liz Cameron, Chief Executive of Scottish Chambers of Commerce, said: “Scotland has decided that the way forward is to remain as part of the United Kingdom. This decision must be respected by all.

“We are now on a path which will provide additional devolved powers to the Scottish Parliament. We need clarity and detail on what specific powers will be transferred, and ensure these are delivered within the promised timescale.

“This historical decision will bring change, not only to Scotland, but throughout the United Kingdom. The campaigns have divided opinion.

“It is now time for us to come together and grasp the opportunities which dynamic change can stimulate and energise. Our direction of travel has been decided. The Scottish business community will work with our politicians at Holyrood and Westminster to influence and deliver the best deal for Scottish business.

“The referendum campaigns placed Scotland’s economy at the top of the political agenda. Now we must keep it there.

“As we approach elections to the UK Parliament in 2015 and the Scottish Parliament in 2016, we have a great opportunity to ensure that Scotland’s economic potential is enhanced to take forward a new business vision, one which places Scotland on the world stage and continues to unlock our collective entrepreneurial spirit as part of a United Kingdom.”

More analysis:

What does the No vote mean for farmers?

What does the No vote mean for fishing industries?