Decisions, decisions, eh!
When Gregor Townsend announces his 31-man World Cup squad at Linlithgow Palace today, there will doubtless be the usual emphasis on how his Scotland party has plenty of options, and a collective determination to hit the ground running when they launch their campaign against Ireland in Yokohama on September 22.
However, the reality is more complicated and reflects the fact that Townsend is blessed in some areas, undercooked in other departments, and uncertain about his best starting XV after a mediocre Six Nations Championship campaign and fluctuating fortunes in the recent Cup warm-up tussles.
On the positive front, he has a group of genuinely world-class performers, including Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, John Barclay, Hamish Watson, Stuart McInally and Greig Laidlaw; players who have demonstrated their pedigree on the biggest stages and have the class to star in Japan.
But he could certainly have done without losing Sam Skinner and finding himself in a rather unseemly public discussion about Richie Gray’s refusal to return to the Scotland ranks despite being asked twice.
So, too, he and his colleagues have been forced to work out whether to choose players who have been battling back against injury.
Fraser Brown’s in this category. So is Duncan Taylor. Does Townsend risk picking them for such an intensive group of fixtures against Ireland, Japan, Samoa and Russia?
There again, does he take a punt on Rory Hutchinson, who scored a brace of tries in the Scots’ impressive 44-10 demolition of Georgia in Tbilisi at the weekend? Perhaps at the expense of Huw Jones, whose form has dipped in recent months and seems fragile in his defensive duties?
He has no shortage of quality at No 15, on the wing and at half-back, while he has an abundance of riches in the back row.
But there are so many Scottish forwards elsewhere who are maddeningly inconsistent – with the line-out a particular problem – that it’s almost guaranteed Townsend will be resorting to eeny-meeny-miny-moe in some of his selections.
The feeling still persists that Scotland could spring a real surprise by beating the Irish in less than three weeks. Joe Schmidt’s team may well have peaked a year too early, some of their pivotal figures are no longer in their pomp, and the spectre of their record-breaking defeat to England last week won’t be easily exorcised.
Yet nothing really matters until the World Cup actually kicks off. Nobody is going to guess Townsend’s final 31. He’s famously inscrutable, inclined to back his hunches and stand or fall on what might be construed as calculated risks. But I’ll wager this list contains at least 25 of his choices.
POSSIBLE SQUAD
BACKS (13): Darcy Graham, Chris Harris, Stuart Hogg, George Horne, Peter Horne, Rory Hutchinson, Sam Johnson, Blair Kinghorn, Greig Laidlaw, Sean Maitland, Ali Price, Finn Russell, Tommy Seymour.
FORWARDS (18): John Barclay, Simon Berghan, Fraser Brown, Scott Cummings, Allan Dell, Matt Fagerson, Jonny Gray, Grant Gilchrist, Stuart McInally, Willem Nel, Gordon Reid, Jamie Ritchie, Josh Strauss, Blade Thomson, Ben Toolis, George Turner, Hamish Watson, Ryan Wilson.