Nothing is certain in politics – not even Scottish politics.
Scotland has voted to Remain, of course, as everyone predicted.
But it was not as resounding as everyone expected.
A clean sweep, sure. But in the binary vote, Leave picked up a quite substantial showing north of the border, improving their position nationally.
Areas, such as Moray, which are perceived to have suffered under the EU, turned out for Brexit.
In Glasgow too – now an SNP stronghold – turnout was just 56%, disappointingly low for those on the Remain side.
It will be interesting to see, when the dust is settled, how the votes have been divided.
How many SNP supporters have followed Nicola Sturgeon’s impassioned calls for Remain? Or how many have ignored them?
How many Labour voters have turned their backs on Jeremy Corbyn and Kezia Dugdale? And what about Ruth Davidson, who boldly threw her hat in with Cameron and the Remainers?
Yes, there are plenty of questions, but perhaps for another day.
For now, both sides will scuttle off to lick their wounds – to try and heal the dip rifts of what was, in the Tory case, an out-and-out civil war.
There is, of course, the Banquo’s ghost of last night’s proceedings – Independence, inevitably.
It has lurked in the background throughout the entire campaign. And now, with the UK leaving the EU, it is coming to the fore.
Slowly, subtly for now, but it will surely grow into a greater, louder crescendo as the full extent of yesterday’s vote becomes clear.
Now there has been a “material change”, many Yes supporters will be delighted, and the prospect of a second referendum is no longer just rhetoric.
It all depends on Ms Sturgeon and her instincts, of course. The First Minister has already said that her government is looking at “all the options” in the event of a Brexit.
Many jumped on these utterances as evidence of plans for a second vote on independence, but they were deliberately more subtle than that.
She made no mention of a second vote in a statement issued early this morning.
After all, the SNP leader knows that she has to win a second vote – and will only countenance one if she’s as sure as she can be that she will win.
The political temperature will need to be taken, with sustained support for the SNP’s position the required reading.
But, as this referendum showed, nothing is certain in politics – not even in Scotland.
