Aberdeen’s away record in the Premiership this season makes for grim reading.
Last night’s 1-0 loss to St Mirren – the Buddies’ first win in Paisley for four months – was Stephen Glass’ team’s SEVENTH defeat on the road in the league this term.
Seven losses from 11 away fixtures, with all seven coming in the last nine trips away from Pittodrie. Yikes.
Only rock-bottom Dundee have a worse points tally than the Reds’ eight on the road this term, and it’s a run which has held the Dons back.
They sit sixth in the Premiership table at present, but how much closer would they be to third-placed Hearts and automatic European qualification if they’d managed to pick up more results in these games? “Winnable” matches they’ve lost against the likes of St Mirren (twice), Dundee and Dundee United. Sides who they’ve overcome at Pittodrie this term.
When you add in the fact Aberdeen also exited the League Cup against Championship Raith Rovers on the road, it has not been a good state of affairs away from home for Glass, his coaching staff and the players.
Is there a clear difference in the Dons’ home and away stats?
Ah, the data…
Take a look at this Opta graphic:
There have been some stark differences between the Dons’ performances at home this season and their showings away from home.
They’ve netted 16 times at Pittodrie, but only 10 times at other venues, the only conclusion being they’ve been less threatening in attack in those games away from home.
Those numbers are reversed for goals conceded, meaning a goal difference of +6 at home and -6 on the road.
Aberdeen’s numbers are actually worse away from home across every general metric – with fewer shots, a lower shot conversion rate, fewer passes, fewer successful passes, a lower passing accuracy, less possession, more shots faced and worse expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) stats.
Fewer shots and a lower conversion rate may put the actual numbers to something which our sports writers and fans have noted all season – that, on the road, against perhaps more defensive-minded sides like St Mirren (who’ve beaten the Reds twice in Paisley now), Dundee and Dundee United, who are all currently in the bottom six, Aberdeen haven’t had the creativity to unlock their rivals.
There is a hesitancy, a lack of fluidity and a lack of belief which is only being compounded with every bad result and poor performance on their travels.
They’ve been playing in areas where players are less likely to have a go and, if they do, from which they are less likely to score.
Last night was a case in point: Seven shots from inside the St Mirren area, but none (zero) on target, with most of the 11 total shots from the Dons in the game from unlikely distances or angles:
The xG (expected goals) rating Opta has given Aberdeen for their 11 away games this term is 10.2 and they’ve scored 10 goals, meaning they’ve put away the chances they have created and would be expected to finish.
It’s not an issue of finishing, then, but not making as many high-quality openings as they are at Pittodrie.
Look at these maps of their shots at home and shots away from home this season – specifically the difference in the concentration of shots from around the opposition penalty spot:
In the last nine away games, one of the places Aberdeen have picked up points (well, one point) was their 2-2 draw at Ibrox on October 27 – against a side who were as willing to have a go at the Dons as the Dons were at them.
Open games perhaps better suit Glass’ side, but it is also notable the Rangers game was near the beginning of this confidence-sapping sequence they’ve put together.
Big difference in shots faced away from home
That’s attack, what about defence?
Most stunning from the Opta stats is the fact Aberdeen have faced almost double the amount of shots away from home in the league this season than they have at Pittodrie.
While they have faced 65 opposition efforts in the Granite City this term, they have been peppered with 110 on the road.
Is this because teams are more willing to attack Aberdeen on their own patch? Or is it a sign of the defending away from home being poorer? Is it both?
Visually, the difference in the opposition shot count is clear as day:
They’ve played Rangers, Celtic, Hearts and Hibs home and away, so it isn’t a situation where “big” opponents who they’ve only played at one venue or another (home or away) are skewing the figures.
Opta reckon Aberdeen have underperformed against their xGA (that’s expected goals against remember) rating home and away – letting in roughly two more goals at home than they should have and three more away from home. In other words, whatever the venue, they are letting in goals they shouldn’t be based on the quality of their opponents’ chances.
If they’ve got a tendency to do this, it follows that letting their rivals get so many shots away on the road will lead to more goals being conceded.
Again, look at how meekly Aberdeen allowed Ronan to strike for St Mirren last night, with the attacker scoring from a position he had no business scoring from.
It is worth mentioning here Aberdeen have conceded first 17 times in matches this season, including in all seven away games they’ve lost in the league.
While at home, a more resilient, perhaps more confident Aberdeen have been able to turn games around with moments of attacking dynamism after conceding first. It’s been harder away from home where an ability to get into good areas from which to strike back has been less evident.
How do Aberdeen solve their troubles on the road?
If you were on social media in the hours after last night’s loss to St Mirren, plenty of fans proffered a solution to Aberdeen’s dreadful away from.
Better defensive displays, limiting shots face and not conceding first in games is clearly part of the jigsaw if the points tally on the road, and Aberdeen’s chances of European qualification, are going to improve this season.
However, the stats do also show more shots and high-quality chances need to be created away from home and, although hopes will be high for Dutch winger Vicente Besuijen following his arrival on Monday, as well as for young American midfielder Dante Polvara, the Red Army look to be right in their view more attacking recruits are needed.
The Dons are already 11 points behind Hearts in the league, having played a game more.
With two away trips next week looming, their need to reverse this woeful run has become critical.
Hearts have four games against fellow top-six sides coming up, where they will likely drop points. If the Reds don’t make up ground during that time, the chase for third could be over.
‘Fuming’, ‘painful’ – Aberdeen fans react with fury after Stephen Glass’ side lose to St Mirren