A new report by a leading credit ratings agency has led to fresh claims that Scots would pay more for mortgages, credit cards and loans after independence.
Moody’s, one of the world’s three major agencies, said that Scotland would be likely to have an investment grade rating of A, two notches below the UK’s AA1.
While still a relatively high level – the same as Moody’s assessment of Israel and the Czech Republic – a drop to A level could lead to higher borrowing costs for Scotland on international markets and have a knock-on impact on consumers.
Pro-UK campaigners seized on the report last night, saying independence would result in a “double downgrade” that would hit Scottish families in the pocket.
The agency also warned, however, that the rest of the UK’s rating could drop by two notches to the same level if any negotiations to break up Britain after a Yes vote proved to be protracted and difficult.
On the prospects of Scotland keeping the pound in a currency union, the report confirmed the position of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives that it would be “credit negative” for the rest of the UK.
Alistair Darling, former chancellor and leader of the Better Together group, said: “This is an absolutely devastating report for the nationalists.
“Not only does it completely undermine everything that they have been asserting about currency, it also makes clear that if we leave the UK then we would pay more for our mortgages, credit cards and loans. This is the real cost of independence.”
Standard and Poor’s, which is one of the other “big three” agencies, said in February that Scotland would qualify for the “highest economic assessment”, as its wealth was comparable to the UK (AAA), Germany (AAA), Ireland (BBB+), and New Zealand (AA-).
A spokesman for Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney said: “An independent Scotland will be the 14th wealthiest country per head in the developed world, compared to the UK in 18th place.
“The Westminster government are just about the last people who should be attempting to make political capital on the issue of credit ratings, given that the No campaign’s previous boasts came unstuck when the UK was stripped of its AAA status by international agencies, while other, smaller European nations retained their top rating.”
However, Chief Treasury Secretary Danny Alexander said: “As part of the UK, Scotland can avoid a double downgrade for its credit rating and maintain lower borrowing costs for Scottish businesses and families. Moody’s also confirm why the UK should not join a currency union – because it would then also have a weaker credit rating.”