Tories could lose to SNP in key north-east election contest – poll

The SNP look set to lose 23 seats at a general election from the Western Isles to the central belt – but there could be an upset in the north-east.

New research by YouGov projects a tight contest with the Conservatives in Aberdeenshire.

And despite the SNP’s crisis since Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation, their vote appears to be holding up well in the north of Scotland.

Here’s how the YouGov research would apply to Scotland in a general election today.

Aberdeenshire

The analysis, based on around 3,500 voters in Scotland, shows Rishi Sunak ally Andrew Bowie losing to the SNP in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine.

YouGov suggests a 33% vote share for the SNP if an election were held now, compared with 29% for Conservatives.

That would mean a surprise exit for the recently appointed junior energy minister.

However, an unusually high projection for Labour in that area puts a question mark over the result.

Analysists have suggested the polarised debate on the constitution may lead unionists to back a party with the best chance of beating the SNP.

The Gordon constituency, another SNP win in 2019, is likely to stay that way with a five point lead over the Tories.

That leaves Banff and Buchan as the only Tory seat in Aberdeenshire, according to the analysis.

Moray

Meanwhile, Moray would also turn back to the SNP.

That seat is set to disappear as part of a boundary shake-up, meaning a result is harder to project.

Douglas Ross, the MP for Moray and Scottish Tory leader, does not plan to stand at the next general election. He is also an MSP for the Highlands and Islands region.

The regional blow is offset nationally if Tories keep their other three seats in the borders, as the research indicates will happen.

Aberdeen

YouGov’s responses put the Granite City firmly in SNP control.

Aberdeen North is projected to have 39% SNP vote share compared with 27% for second place Labour.

Aberdeen South, held by SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, looks safe with 35% compared with Labour’s 28%.

Highlands and Islands

There is only one change projected across this vast region.

It looks like Labour candidate Torcuil Crichton is on course to win the Western Isles from the SNP.

Angus MacNeill has held the seat there since 2005.

Shetland and Orkney would remain Lib Dem, according to the poll, while constituencies from Lochaber to Argyll stick with the SNP.

YouGov spoke to more than 3,500 adults in Scotland between April 10 and May 21