Large independent oil firms Anadarko, BG, Noble, Repsol and Tullow have been identified as being “ahead of the pack” in a report predicting the world’s star explorers in coming years.
The analysis, conducted by energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, added that oil giants BP and Total are expected to “return to form” due to having stakes in “diverse new positions” in key emerging oil basins.
The Edinburgh-based research firm said independents that remained committed to exploration would find life “a little easier” as it unveiled its latest ranking of company exploration performance.
Wood Mack said firms that focus on “quality acreage re-load” will be the leading explorers of the second half of this decade.
Andrew Latham, vice-president of Wood Mack’s Exploration Service, said: “With the exception of Apache, Anadarko and BG, very few companies manage to sustain exploration out-performance for a decade or more.
“Companies that pull off the remarkable trick of basin renewal at the same time as a wave of success in a hot, emerging basin will stay ahead of the pack for a full decade or more,” he added.
The company said the key characteristic of “future star explorers” was an ability to invest in new acreage regardless of recent drilling results.
The winning independents such as Anadarko, BG, Noble, Repsol and Tullow have continued to renew their portfolios and “look well placed to remain ahead of the pack”, Dr Latham said.
“Many others have responded to weak exploration results and shareholder pressure with a retreat from high-impact drilling towards a lower-risk strategy,” said Dr Latham.
“Life for those independents that remain committed to big exploration could be getting a little easier in terms of attracting experienced personnel and reduced competition for opportunities.
“Among the majors that recently have not ranked highly by returns, we pick out BP and Total as two examples that look to have re-loaded substantial and diverse new positions of high quality. A return to form is likely for both.”