Neil Warnock’s focus may be on simply winning his first league game but Aberdeen have found themselves facing a win-or-bust scenario as they prepare for a trip to Kilmarnock.
Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Hibernian made it one win in eight league matches for the Dons in 2024.
Granted there have been just two defeats in that run, at Tynecastle and Ibrox, but Aberdeen are not closing the gap – it’s getting wider.
The sight of their rivals seemingly finding form at the same moment has compounded the task which now faces the interim manager.
When the Dons last won in the league, a 3-0 win at Ross County on January 2, they were eighth, nine points behind fourth-placed Killie having played four games fewer than Derek McInnes’ side.
Fast forward to Saturday’s draw with Hibs, who have been every bit as out-of-sorts as the Dons, and Aberdeen are in exactly the same position of eighth in the table.
Crucially, that four games in-hand has been whittled down to one while the nine-point gap has been stretched to double figures thanks to Killie’s fine 1-1 draw at Celtic Park at the weekend.
Add in the Ayrshire side’s superior goal difference and you can effectively add another point to the gap.
Hopes of catching Hearts have long since been forgotten with the Jambos boasting a 24 point lead on the Dons.
With Aberdeen having just 13 league games left even the most optimistic member of the Red Army had given up the ghost on a repeat of last season’s late run past Steven Naismith’s side happening.
Aberdeen’s European hopes depending on Kilmarnock game
That brings us to Saturday’s trip to Rugby Park. If ever there was a game where Warnock needs a first league win it would be this weekend.
Even if the Dons did manage to pick up all three points against Killie, a side which has beaten them twice in the league this season already and stands between them and a place in the Scottish Cup semi-final, the road ahead is a difficult one.
But it is clear a third league defeat this season to Killie would effectively end Aberdeen’s top four hopes.
That would leave Aberdeen’s hopes of European qualification dependent on lifting the Scottish Cup for the first time in 34 years in May or finishing fifth in the table and hoping Celtic, Rangers or Hearts – and possibly Killie if they finish fourth – claim cup glory.
St Mirren’s surprise loss at Livingston at the weekend means they currently hold an eight-point lead on the Dons.
It’s a gap which offers a glimmer of hope but the big assumption being made here is that the Dons are suddenly going to start winning matches.
They have done it just six times in 25 attempts so far in the league. The ratio needs to be drastically improved in the final 13 games of an erratic campaign.
If it does not then forget Europe, the top six will be the height of the club’s ambitions.
Neil Warnock has only eight games before split
The stakes are higher still when you consider Warnock has just eight games left before the split to get a tune of out a team which has found the knack of scoring at the exact moment it’s developed a worrying habit of conceding cheap goals.
Aberdeen’s remaining game in-hand is against Tony Docherty’s Dundee, the side currently holding a five-point lead in the race for sixth place.
The trip to Dens Park will not be played until March 13. Unless the Dons find some form the importance on that fixture could be negligible.
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