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Scottish economy bouncing back

Optimism about the economy is growing among service sector companies
Optimism about the economy is growing among service sector companies

Scotland’s economy is back to performing at pre-recession levels, a new survey of businesses has suggested.

The latest figures for company turnover in the Bank of Scotland Business Monitor are the best for almost seven years.

Almost half of the firms surveyed (46%) said they had seen turnover rise in the three months to the end of May, while 36% said levels had stayed the same and 18% experienced a decrease.

When the proportion of firms who saw turnover fall is subtracted from those who saw a rise, the survey gives a net balance for turnover of +28.

This was described as a “robust rise” from the +18 in the previous quarter and a “substantial improvement” on the performance a year ago, when the net balance was -8.

The report said: “This is the best result in almost seven years and returns the net balance figure to pre-recession levels of quarter three 2007.”

Companies in the service sector and the production sector both recorded improvements in this area.

For the service sector the net balance of turnover was +29 for the period March to May, which compares to +20 in the previous quarter and -10 a year ago.

The production sector had a net balance of turnover of +25, up from +16 in the previous three months and well up on the balance of -5 from 2013.

The survey of 408 businesses also showed the recovery in export activity had been maintained over the period March to May this year.

More than a quarter (27%) of firms surveyed said exports activity had increased in this period, while 60% said it was static and 13% reported a fall.

This gives a net balance for export activity of +14, which is up slightly from the performance of +12 which was reported both in the last quarter and a year ago.

Almost half (47%) of firms questioned expect their total volume of business to increase in the six months between May and November, while 46% expect to see turnover grow and 31% believe exports will rise over this period.

Bank of Scotland chief economist Donald MacRae said: “The surge in economic activity identified in summer 2013 has been maintained into summer this year.

“Expectations are at their highest level since mid-2007, suggesting the recovery will continue throughout 2014. Further increases in investment by firms would enhance the recovery.”