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Does Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation mean her independence strategy is dead?

We look at the options on the table for the next first minister and hear the views of Aberdeenshire SNP politicians.

Nicola Sturgeon shocked Scotland by quitting. Image: PA.
Nicola Sturgeon shocked Scotland by quitting. Image: PA.

At the heart of the contest to replace Nicola Sturgeon is how the next SNP leader will be best-placed to secure independence.

The first minister’s shock decision to quit left her own strategy in doubt and saw the party’s special conference to decide the matter postponed.

Backed into a corner, Ms Sturgeon argued the SNP should use the next Westminster election to pursue independence since a legal referendum has been blocked.

But there were doubts within the SNP’s ranks over the approach and some of her potential successors may change tack.

What was the first minister’s plan?

In November, the UK’s Supreme Court ruled Ms Sturgeon’s government could not hold a rerun of the 2014 referendum without Tory approval.

The SNP chief said her party would fight the next UK general election on independence alone. She called this a “de facto” referendum.

If parties in favour secured more than 50% of the vote then that would be taken as a mandate for ending the union.

The first minister had scheduled a one-day conference in Edinburgh for SNP members to decide whether this was the best path forward.

But Ms Sturgeon admitted it would be unfair to sway the party’s choice when she had doubts about continuing in her post.

What are the leadership candidates saying?

Humza Yousaf has been one of Ms Sturgeon’s most trusted allies and has pitched himself as the best candidate to continue her legacy.

Humza Yousaf is favourite to become first minister. Image: PA.

However, he distanced himself from her referendum blueprint and has “concerns” about the approach.

Instead, frontrunner Mr Yousaf wants to build up support for independence so it becomes “politically impossible” for the UK Government to snub pleas for a vote.

SNP finance chief and Highland politician Kate Forbes wants to see a “reset” to the party’s independence strategy and has been cagey about committing to Ms Sturgeon’s election plan.

Scottish Finance Secretary Kate Forbes
Leadership contender Kate Forbes. Image: PA.

The Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch MSP said the next Westminster vote should be used to “maximise pressure” on the UK Government.

Outsider contender Ash Regan said a majority for anti-union parties in any election should be taken as an immediate mandate for independence.

What are north-east politicians saying?

Aberdeenshire MSP Karen Adam said a “de facto” referendum was the “next best democratic route” to pursue independence.

But she admitted she remains open to “other proposals and ideas” if Ms Sturgeon’s preferred approach falls by the wayside.

SNP candidate Karen Adam
Aberdeenshire MSP Karen Adam. Image: SNP.

The Banffshire and Buchan Coast MSP said: “Whatever route Scotland takes to express our democratic wishes, Scotland’s right to self determination will not be denied.”

Aberdeenshire East MSP Gillian Martin insisted SNP members must play a crucial role in deciding the best route for the party.

Aberdeenshire MSP Gillian Martin. Image: Kath Flannery/DC Thomson.

She said: “Leadership candidates might have their own views but I think all of them know that a conversation and debate with party members is what has to happen to decide our strategy.”

What next for Ms Sturgeon’s strategy?

So far independence has taken a backseat in the SNP leadership race after Kate Forbes controversially admitted she would have voted against gay marriage.

Yet the question of how the party continues to push for their ultimate goal can be expected to dominate the contest.

The SNP’s postponed special March conference may be rescheduled after a new first minister is chosen on March 27, depending on who wins.

Ms Sturgeon also confirmed a series of papers outlining her party’s plans for an independent Scotland had been put on pause.

Ash Regan is running to be first minister. Image: DC Thomson.

While Ms Regan has formally endorsed fighting an election on leaving the UK, she has otherwise been critical of the outgoing first minister.

Heir apparent Mr Yousaf’s own doubts over his party chief’s strategy indicate a new direction can be expected from whoever is crowned SNP leader.

But if Ms Sturgeon’s successor rejects her “de facto” referendum, they will be immediately expected to present a viable alternative. That could prove a tough task.

Is it all academic anyway?

Any SNP approach geared towards leaving the union may be doomed to hit a dead-end while the UK Government remains determined to block a vote at all costs.

Tory Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has said Ms Sturgeon’s successor should “drop the obsession” with independence and focus on governing.

In the midst of the cost-of-living emergency and NHS crisis, the new first minister may quickly find themselves bogged down by more pressing problems.

Conversation