Failure to secure manufacturing jobs in new green industries could see Aberdeen repeat mistakes that led Glasgow to become one of Europe’s most underperforming cities, a leading economist warns
The warning follows analysis of average income paid across regions of Scotland which shows north-east constituencies comfortably out-performing much of the country – for now.
But Professor Keith Bender, from Aberdeen University, warns the oil-rich region risks squandering skills and knowledge – and therefore income – built up over decades by failing to win contracts that could provide high-paying jobs for generations.
Prof Bender, who is part of the Just Transition Lab at Aberdeen University, said some pockets of the city benefitf rom high-level renewables work, but the effect is greatly reduced from earlier oil and gas booms.
Wealth is not being spread out to other communities and appears to be reducing steadily over time.
A perfect storm
Prof Bender believes the region is now facing a “perfect storm” with echoes of how Glasgow suffered from de-industrialisation.
He said: “There is a lot of activity around renewables. A lot of the engineering, at least the research and development part of it, is being done by local industry.
“But the challenge is that unlike an oil rig where you still need to maintain it and pay good wages for people, offshore wind doesn’t have that same maintenance cost and requirements.”
Prof Bender added: “We haven’t done a very good job of thinking about why we aren’t building wind turbines and solar panels here and utilising the high skills base that is in Aberdeen and around the north-east of Scotland.
“The challenge I think the area really has is that the skills that Aberdeen has now had for a very long time are extremely mobile.
“If people don’t see what the plan B really is, they can take their skills anywhere – both within the UK or abroad.”
Shifting economic power
Analysis published in the Sunday Post revealed seven of the top 10 UK Parliament constituencies in Scotland for average income tax paid are in Edinburgh or the north-east, while no Glasgow constituency made the grade.
Edinburgh South is top of all 57 constituencies on £12,900 followed by Edinburgh West on £9,840, then West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine on £9,740.
After another Edinburgh area sits in fourth while Aberdeen South is fifth with £8,820.
Gordon and Buchan is eleventh on £6,950.
Research from the Centre for Cities thinktank found Glasgow is missing out on an economic boom the size of Scotland’s entire oil and gas industry and is one of Europe’s most underperforming cities.
For an even starker contrast, the £656 million collected in Edinburgh South – the highest paying area in Scotland – is dwarfed by the £4.2 billion paid by London’s Kensington and Bayswater.
Listen to our Stooshie politics podcast for more on the challenge to secure valuable jobs after oil and gas.
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