It doesn’t take much to make your typical Scottish rugby fan awash with optimism ahead of a Guinness Six Nations.
Even after a fairly nondescript 5-win-from-12 year in 2022. Just a flurry of Finnsanity against a knackered Argentina at the end of November is enough to turn many of us glassy-eyed with hope.
My annual habit – nay, duty – is to pour cold water on all of that. Far from a championship, even some distance from the ‘bottom-line’ of three wins for the 2023 set by many, I think Scotland are looking at two wins this Six Nations.
And neither of those is remotely a given.
England
𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐨 📅
Current excitement levels 📈#ENGvSCO pic.twitter.com/hCIOd3piZH
— England Rugby (@EnglandRugby) January 28, 2023
We start with England on Saturday. Yes, Scotland’s record against the Auld Enemy with Gregor Townsend as head coach and Russell at the creative helm is outstanding. Even when they’ve not always been on the same page.
For 30 years or more against England, veteran observers like your correspondent were chastened to a succession of dispiriting defeats and humble pie.
The last half-decade has been delicious gravy. We’ve loved it. Even the one recent defeat, in 2020, was actually a disappointment.
Also, England are in flux. Eddie Jones’s careful plan has been ripped up. Steve Borthwick is in to deliver old-school pragmatism. At least some of this seems dubious – 34-year-old Dan Cole the solution to England’s scrum issues? Okay…
But the English always do pretty decently with a new coach bounce. It was true of their last two head coaches, Stuart Lancaster, and of course for Eddie.
He won a Grand Slam after England’s humiliation at their home World Cup of 2015 supposedly had them in disarray.
The intimidating 82,000 braying at Twickenham hasn’t been helpful for England in recent times. But they were inured to modest returns.
You suspect they will lift the team now Eddie, who they never warmed to, has gone. On Saturday I take a narrow English win.
Ireland and France
🆙 The Wallabies are up to sixth spot in the World Rugby rankings.pic.twitter.com/35sCX4EJTl
— Planet Rugby (@PlanetRugby) November 28, 2022
Ireland and France are the top two teams in the world, entirely on merit. I have an inkling that France might be vulnerable this spring, as they were in parts during the autumn.
Gregor Townsend is fond of saying that there is no development in the Six Nations. For France, especially this year, there definitely is.
Last year’s Grand Slam means one this year is not immediately pressing. The World Cup in their homeland is unquestionably their target.
Despite having clearly the most talented team in the championship, they may have their eye off the ball or do some tinkering.
But France can tinker and still be the best team on any given day. And they were light years ahead of Scotland when they met in 2022.
For Ireland, it’s foot to the floor in 2023, all the way. I saw one – occasionally hysterical – pundit this week suggest that anything other than a Slam was “drastic underachievement”.
The Irish quite patently rely on the ageing bones of Jonny Sexton far too much. That could become a major issue, and their patented World Cup Year Slump might well come.
But not when it comes to Scotland. Seriously, I hear several usually sage voices suggesting Scotland will beat Ireland on the penultimate weekend. But where, please, is there any evidence for this?
Sexton has NOT been the key
Sexton may well be absent injured by the time we get to March. But he’s not been the crucial difference in Scotland-Ireland contests of late – indeed, far from it.
In Murrayfield meetings under Townsend, Joey Carberry played most of the 2019 game Ireland won. In the Covid game of `21, Sexton played well, but the difference in a tight game was Ireland’s evisceration of Scotland’s lineout.
In EVERY game since 2017, Ireland’s incredibly-drilled setpiece and rock-solid discipline has forced Scotland to give away armfuls of penalties.
That’s been absolutely the key element of Irish dominance, and there’s no sign anything has changed. Indeed, if anything, Ireland are even better drilled and disciplined than they were a year ago, and Scotland are just as flagrant with their discipline.
We’ve said before that Scotland’s progress in 2023 goes directly through two games with Ireland, in the Six Nations and the World Cup. I still see nothing at all to lend any optimism toward either.
Wales and Italy
A fortnight after suggesting that his predecessor ought to have picked fewer senior players, Warren Gatland recalls two 34-year-olds to the Wales bench, one of whom last played Test rugby 7 years ago. Funny old game.
— Peter Jackson (@JackoRugby) January 31, 2023
Scotland’s two wins this year should come against Wales and Italy at Murrayfield. I wouldn’t bet the house on either, though.
Wales have reinstalled Warren Gatland, which should but the wind up Scotland. They’ve never beaten a Gat-piloted Welsh team.
He’s gone back to his tried and tested stalwarts for at least the first game. Gatland has always managed to get more out of players than any other coach.
Wales should be better than under Wayne Pivac. But still, it wasn’t really the coaching that was the issue with them.
Scotland’s loss in Cardiff was their worst performance of 2022. Against a reeling Welsh side dismantled in Dublin, it shouldn’t have even been close. Nothing less than a win next week will suffice.
Italy are much better than they were on their last Murrayfield visit, but that’s an exceedingly low bar. Townsend tinkered with Stuart Hogg at 10 and they still scored 50 points.
Last year in Rome a late flurry inspired by new star Ange Capuzzo made it a lot closer than it really was.
I don’t think anyone’s going to be taking any selectorial chances with Italy anymore, and they’ll be competitive.
The Scots will have huge incentive to win decisively on March 17, no matter what state they get there in. Only complacency (definitely not out of the question) or an epochal injury situation gives any concern here.