Kate Forbes is the most popular choice for first minister among unionists and Yes voters from 2014, according to an exclusive new poll on the SNP leadership contest.
The findings pose a dilemma for SNP supporters frustrated that support for independence appears stuck.
The research was carried out by Survation over March 8-10, after the first televised debate on STV.
Ms Forbes, the finance secretary in the Scottish Government, centred her pitch on competence and the economy.
It’s not the general public she needs to win over, it’s the SNP membership.
– Sir John Curtice
She has positioned herself to be the candidate most likely to win over the SNP’s current opponents.
But Mr Yousaf is mopping up the support among the elected politicians.
We exclusively revealed the growing list includes SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, the MP for Aberdeen South.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice said: “Ms Forbes needs to remember it’s not the general public she needs to win over, it’s the SNP membership.
“If SNP members are like supporters then we don’t know who’s going to win.”
Sir John drew comparison with last year’s Conservative party leader contest, which put Liz Truss in power for a chaotic few weeks.
“If general voters had a say, Rishi Sunak would have won,” Sir John said.
“In this instance, Kate Forbes would win. But she has to persuade SNP voters.”
It also remains to be seen if SNP members will endorse Ms Forbes’ more socially conservative views on equality legislation in the hope of winning over unionists.
Poll findings explained
The polling from Survation suggests Mr Yousaf is on 31%, one point ahead of Ms Forbes, according to respondents who voted SNP in 2019. Ms Regan is on 16%.
Among Yes voters from 2014, Ms Forbes is in the lead, four points ahead on 32%, while Ms Regan is on 15%.
Among No voters, Ms Forbes is far ahead on 34% compared with Mr Yousaf on 16% and Ms Regan on just 5%.
But a big 45% of voters are still to make up their minds.
The results come nearly a month since Nicola Sturgeon sensationally announced she will quit the job she’s held since 2014.
SNP voters will pick the winner at the end of March, leaving Scotland with a new first minister but no national election.
Support among different age groups could also hold the key to the next winner.
Ms Forbes is the only one bucking the general SNP trend.
Overall, young voters back the Nationalists but older voters do not.
Survation’s research shows Ms Forbes is most popular nationally to be first minister and scores 42% with over 65s compared with 21% for Mr Yousaf. Ms Regan is on just four per cent.
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