Labour hopeful of Blackpool South by-election win as Sunak braces for losses

The Conservatives look set for a by-election defeat and a bruising set of council results which will add to pressure on Rishi Sunak.

Labour is confident it will win the Blackpool South parliamentary seat from the Tories, with Reform UK hoping to push the Conservatives into third.

The by-election, triggered by the resignation of former Tory MP Scott Benton after a lobbying scandal, is just one of scores of contests which will be closely analysed ahead of the general election the Prime Minister will call later this year.

There are 107 councils holding elections in England, with around a third expected to declare overnight following Thursday’s polling day.

Cabinet minister Chris Heaton-Harris accepted that Blackpool South was likely to be lost by the Conservatives.

The Northern Ireland Secretary said it was “going to be a tough seat for us to hold” given the scandal which led to it.

He told the BBC: “You are highly unlikely to be rewarded by the electorate. Electorates do not like by-elections being put on them because of a failing like that.

“From the very start I would have expected to lose Blackpool South.”

Most of the council seats up for re-election in England were last contested in 2021, at the peak of Boris Johnson’s popularity as the Covid-19 vaccine was rolled out.

Tory peer and polling expert Lord Hayward said he expected the Tories to lose upwards of 400 seats but he suggested that Mr Sunak’s position was not in immediate jeopardy.

“In recent days I have been left with the very clear impression that, amongst Tory MPs, the ‘let’s have a leadership election’ balloon has been substantially deflated,” he said.

However, “an audible, very small group will disagree and probably do so early”.

A strong showing by Reform UK will add to Tory unease about Mr Sunak’s ability to lead the party to a general election victory.

Reform UK’s leader Richard Tice told the PA news agency his party “is rapidly become the real opposition to Labour, whether it’s in the North, the Midlands, we know it’s the case in Wales”.

In Sunderland, one of the few councils where Reform fought every seat, it beat the Conservatives into third place in 16 of the 25 seats up for grabs while Labour made a net gain of six to increase its comfortable majority.

Mr Heaton-Harris said the results in Sunderland showed “if you vote Reform, you get Labour” and at a general election “if they want to vote Reform, they’ll end up with Labour MPs, and they’ll end up with a Labour government, and then they’ll end up, probably, with everything they didn’t want to vote for”.

A total of 11 mayoral contests are also taking place, including for the London mayoralty between frontrunners Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan and Tory challenger Susan Hall.

Forecasts have consistently put Mr Khan ahead of Ms Hall, with a poll published on Wednesday by Savanta giving him a 10-point advantage after his lead tapered over the campaign.

Allies of Mr Khan said they expected a “close” fight.

Conservative mayors Andy Street in the West Midlands and Lord Ben Houchen in Tees Valley are also facing re-election battles.

Victory for either would be a boost for Mr Sunak, although Labour point to the mayors distancing themselves from the current Tory leadership.

Voters across England and Wales were also choosing who will serve as police and crime commissioners.

The final results from the various elections are not expected until Sunday but key developments include:

– Labour won Rushmoor in Hampshire for the first time.

– Labour won Hartlepool council, regaining ground in an area where the party suffered a Westminster by-election humiliation in 2021.

– Labour won Thurrock, one of its top targets and an area of the country that will be a key battleground with the Tories at the next general election.

– With 18 of 107 councils declared, the Tories have lost two authorities and a net 59 councillors, while Labour had gained three authorities and 38 councillors.

The Tories held Broxbourne while Labour held Sunderland, but elsewhere in the north-east they lost wards to independents in South Tyneside – where there have been problems with bin collections – and the Greens in Newcastle.

The party’s position on the Israel-Hamas conflict could be a factor in some wards where Labour has lost ground around England.

Voters across England and Wales were also choosing who will serve as police and crime commissioners.

Labour’s national campaign co-ordinator Pat McFadden said: “It’s going to be a long night and the full picture of results from local elections may not be clear until over the weekend, but we expect to see Labour gains that show we’re making progress in the places we need to win the next general election.”

The relatively new requirement for voters to show photographic identification continued to cause problems, including for Mr Johnson, who as prime minister introduced the changes.

He was turned away while attempting to cast his ballot in South Oxfordshire, where a police and crime commissioner for the Thames Valley is being elected, Sky News reported.

A spokesman said he returned to the polling stations with the correct identification and voted Conservative.

The Government said it intends to make veterans’ ID cards a valid form of voter identification after former service personnel were turned away from polling stations.

Veterans minister Johnny Mercer apologised to those who had been unable to use their veterans’ ID card to vote in the local elections on Thursday, vowing to “do all I can” to have it added to the list of valid identification.