After the last few rollercoaster years characterised by colossal uncertainty and an ever-changing economic landscape we ask north businesses to dust down a crystal ball they may have put away during the pandemic and provide us with their thoughts for next year.
Ben Laing, Threaplands Garden Centre
Threaplands Garden Centre in Lhanbryde, Elgin, employs 62 staff, runs a thriving cafe and despite feeling the squeeze this year as a succession of financial strains, most notably energy rises, is optimistic for next year.
“Recruitment post-Covid was extremely challenging but this has recovered and we are fully-staffed with a fantastic team to welcome 2023,” said Threaplands director Ben Laing.
“We welcome the increase in minimum wage but would like to see the UK government address its current position on hospitality VAT.
“Further we would urge the Scottish government to address its position on business rates as England welcome a 50% reduction for retail and hospitality businesses when we receive no discount.
“The relief in electricity is extremely welcome seeing a £2,500 reduction per month in our electricity bill which jumped in October to £6,500 per month. Thankfully, our gas is fixed for a further two years.”
The garden centre has invested in green technology with solar thermal panels for hot water in addition to its low-energy building, biomass boiler and rainwater harvesting. Next year will see a project to install solar PV panels for electricity production.
Mr Laing added: “We have predicted 2023 to stay flat on 2022 without growth. My hope is people have listened to the warnings about tougher times ahead and are spending responsibly. Less expendable income can be good for a business like our if people choose to continue the staycation trend rather than going on holiday abroad.
“We also offer a cheaper alternative to dining out and meeting friends versus going for the traditional dinner and drinks in the evening. Although I expect the first half of 2023 to be extremely challenging, we have seen positive indicators that Moray can weather recession well.”
Scott Murray, Cru Holdings
Cru Holdings managing director Scott Murray says recruitment remains a “huge issue” and that between “apathy for the industry, lack of transient and seasonal staff combined with lack of accommodation, recruitment has been worse than it has ever been”.
Mr Murray leads the group which operates seven bars and restaurants in Inverness and Nairn, including the popular Classroom Bar and Bistro.
As well as those challenges, VAT and hospitality rates “need reforming, for sure,” added Mr Murray, who noted the business was facing sales reductions combined with cost increases from all angles.
Mr Murray noted: “For the industry to survive, we are going to require some sort of assistance from the government. Matching the 12 months 75% rate relief as per England would be a great start, but more has to be done to bring the rating system in line with the likes of supermarkets and retail.
“I hope the government will step in with something meaningful to ease the cost of living increases for customers and staff. I think the next three months are going to be key and the focus is on stabilising our businesses and building strong teams to take us through the next summer months.
“I think our summers will always be busy and our shoulder seasons will take care of themselves. The key is surviving the winter – and whatever can be done to help all businesses do this in the Highlands will be well received.”
Lorraine Bremner McBride, Inverness Bid
Umbrella business organisation Inverness Bid director Lorraine Bremner McBride says a “plethora of economic challenges” characterised 2022 and is cautioning against too drastic a change for the centre of town for next year.
Ms McBride said: “A key issue for many city centre businesses will be what happens to Academy Street and Millburn Road. Some worry the impact of banning all private vehicles from effectively the whole city centre will be the last straw.
“Most are positive about the design itself but taking such a drastic step given all they’ve already suffered is an added concern. Some low-traffic schemes work very well but others have not been successful so this will be a key issue in 2023.
“With people having less to spend due to increased costs elsewhere where and how they spend their money will be more important than ever. Initiatives such as our City Centre Gift Card allow us when faced with a choice to decide to help the local economy and the locally-based businesses who provide the employment, goods and services we all need more.
“More than anything a period of stability is needed for business but households too. Not having any more exceptional changes or challenges which could harm at the very least is needed.”
Freda Newton, Loch Ness by Jacobite
Loch Ness by Jacobite operates a fleet of four boats plying the 23-mile-long iconic stretch of water in the Highlands and is pointing to a potential drop in domestic visitors for 2023.
Managing director Freda Newton said: “Hospitality businesses do not operate in isolation; we are part of the consumer economy and a barometer for consumer trends and spending.
“With the cost of living rising there will inevitably be less disposable income. Scotland has always had to prove it delivers value for money compared to other international destinations so we could see the bubble burst in the staycation market.
“The domestic market still accounts for around 65% of visitors to Scotland so that is a very real threat to our business.”
The Loch Ness by Jacobite MD added there was “simply too much regulation being imposed on the tourism and hospitality sector” and called on the UK and Scottish Governments to “think carefully” about further administrative and financial burdens to businesses still trying to rebuild post-pandemic.
“I, along with many in the industry, would like to see the Deposit Return Scheme paused”
Loch Ness by Jacobite MD Freda Newton
“For example, there is the Deposit Return Scheme, which is due to come into force in 2023,” said Ms Newton adding: “The scheme applies a standardised 20p deposit to all drink containers (glass, metal or PET between 50ml and three litres) to be refunded to the consumer when they return the empty intact container to any one of 35,000 collection points – be it over the counter, via a reverse vending machine (RVM) or an online retailer.
“I, along with many in the industry, would like to see the Deposit Return Scheme paused, revised and rewritten. I’d like the Scottish Government to recognise the considerable concerns and risks raised by multiple sectors across Scotland of the negative impact the scheme will impose on both businesses and consumers.”
Fuel costs are also a key issue for Loch Ness by Jacobite and although its newest boat is designed to have a lower energy consumption, the company still relies on diesel to take thousands of passengers across Loch Ness each year.
Ms Newton said: “We have never set a minimum number of passengers to run our cruises but if operational costs continue to rise, this is something we may need to consider.”
“It is true the Highlands and Islands are a draw for tourists from all over the world. But, with less money to spend, the quality of a visitor experience becomes ever more important.”
Jane MacPhee, JP at the Castle restaurant
JP at the Castle restaurant has been an Inverness building since 1775 and is throwing open its doors this winter to offer free children’s meals as customers struggle with the cost of living.
Owner Jane MacPhee said: “Something has to give. Life for many is not sustainable in this current state and the level of suffering and poverty before this was unacceptable.
“That’s why we are running initiatives like free kids’ meals at JP at the Castle – despite the hard times businesses are facing, we all have to pull together to help get everyone get through.
“I’m not sure 2023 will see things settle. I don’t expect to make more than the bare minimum in the next year and that will require working long hours to achieve it.
“That said, I would say I am upbeat and positive in general but I am also realistic. If we can get through this next 18 months, then hopefully things will level out.”
Ms MacPhee is also urging the UK and Scottish governments to reintroduce “eat out to help out” for restaurants on a regular basis throughout the winter as a way to encourage tourism to the UK out of season.
Conversation