So we have it – the only identified trigger of another vote on independence has been pulled.
Nicola Sturgeon’s much touted ‘material change in circumstance’ is now fact.
She believes she now has the authority – the political capital – necessary to call another vote. It is the scenario she said she never wanted, yet here it is.
The SNP will be cautious. They know more than anyone that they have to win a second vote. To lose would kill the independence project stone dead, especially after the aforementioned material change.
But there is, of course, no rush. Cameron, if it is still Cameron, has at least two years to negotiate an exit – possibly longer.
Polls still suggest support for independence is on a knife-edge across Scotland, even if we leave the EU.
The First Minister will want more certainty than that.
She has previously suggested sustained of around 60% would be enough.
If the economy collapses because of Brexit, as the pro-Remain camp have suggested it will, the numbers will almost certainly begin to shift in that direction.
She will still face obstacles, however, both from other parties and a large portion of the Scottish public.
People might be concerned about the economy now Brexit is happening, sure, but a second independence referendum – and all the additional uncertainty it brings – could put Scotland into a tail spin.
One thing is certain, however. Independence is now very much back on the agenda – and a second referendum is now odds on.
