SNP-Green split: North and north-east reacts to end of coalition

First Minister Humza Yousaf has dumped his Green partners after three years, and thrown a massive question mark over his own future.

The SNP leader confirmed the “termination” of the so-called Bute House Agreement at a surprise press conference hastily arranged on Thursday morning.

The move sparked a motion of no confidence in his position in parliament, expected to be held next week and putting Mr Yousaf in real danger of seeing the entire government collapse.

Scottish Green Party co-leaders Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie speaking to the media at the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood, Edinburgh after learning the pact had been “terminated”. Image: PA.

The SNP-Green power-sharing pact was particularly tense in areas like the north and north-east, where the future of oil and proposed fishing bans sparked anger.

While Mr Yousaf tries to shore up his position, here are the big questions he faces, from promises on the A96 to the future of oil – and his own position in power.

How are local commentators reacting?

Fergus Mutch, the SNP’s former SNP media chief, who lives in the north-east and was a former candidate in the region, was among those to welcome the move.

He said the first minister needs to “use the opportunity for a reset – on policy, personnel and purpose – and try to get the SNP back on the front foot after a torrid time”.

Former SNP media chief Fergus Mutch. Image: DC Thomson.

Geoff Aberdein, who was Alex Salmond’s Chief of Staff, working in a minority Government from 2007, said Mr Yousaf needs to focus on “issues that carry favour”.

He said: “Focus on job creation. Focus on health. Focus on education. Forget the rest of it. This is the start of your election campaign and the start of a period that will determine whether First Minister Humza Yousaf will remain, indeed, as first minister.”

Will A96 be dualled now?

SNP activists in the north-east were already contemplating whether ditching the deal could smooth the path for full dualling of the A96 between Aberdeen and Inverness.

When the SNP and Greens entered the agreement in summer 2021, it was agreed the long promised project would be paused while a climate review was carried out.

The scheme was top of the list of calls within moments of the collapsed coalition with the P&J asking Mr Yousaf about it directly during Thursday’s press conference.

The A96 north of Inverurie, where the dual carriageway ends and a single carriageway begins when heading to inverness from Aberdeen. — The A96 north of Inverurie, where the dual carriageway ends and a single carriageway begins when heading to Inverness from Aberdeen. Image: Paul Glendell/DC Thomson.

But the SNP leader is standing by the climate review despite losing the Greens from his government.

Asked if that means the road can now be built, Mr Yousaf told the P&J it remains an important consideration.

But he said “watch this space” about a review of government plans in the coming weeks.

What does it mean for party’s oil and gas policy?

There has been a softening in tone on the move away from oil and gas since Mr Yousaf took over from Nicola Sturgeon.

Clearly in election mode, he has noticed the fury that surrounded Labour’s oil and gas windfall plans and around the Tories decision to extend the levy for an extra year.

Will the SNP chart a different course on oil and gas? Image: Shutterstock.

It prompted a trip to Aberdeen in February – the oil and gas capital of Europe – to set out his party’s plan to maintain the tax at current levels.

The Scottish Government’s draft energy strategy proposes a presumption against new oil and gas licences and it’s hard to imagine any notable shift from this.

But while the oil and gas sector might welcome less hostility towards the sector, climate campaigners have concerns over the consequences.

Lauren MacDonald, a Scottish climate campaigner from the Stop Rosebank campaign, warned the government must “not now be tempted to side with the profiteering oil and gas giants who will no doubt be celebrating the removal of the Greens from government.”

Are SNP figures like Stephen Flynn feeling relieved as election looms?

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn is increasingly seen as a leader in waiting.

The Aberdeen South MP ousted his predecessor Ian Blackford to lead the party in the Commons, raising his profile at weekly exchanges at Prime Minister’s Questions.

Representing a north-east constituency, he is regarded as having had influence when it comes to adopting a different tack on oil and gas policy.

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn. Image: Darrell Benns/DC Thomson.

The MP will be relieved to lose the Greens ahead of a tough general election contest for the SNP’s Westminster MPs, and likely feel it helps him on the doors.

Posting on X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday, he gave his emphatic approval of the decision which he said had “shown leadership in the national interest”.

What does this mean for SNP rebels?

Veteran SNP MSP Fergus Ewing – a long-time critic of the Bute House Agreement – told the P&J it was a “happy day” to see the pact end.

Mr Ewing added: “Now Mr Yousaf must concentrate on competent government and the real priorities – the economy, jobs, the NHS and our schools.”

As a minority government now, the SNP will have to work with other parties to pass legislation and – importantly – future budgets.

Mr Ewing, who represents Inverness and Nairn, added: “He should work with the other main parties. That’s what people want.

Inverness and Nairn MSP Fergus Ewing. Image: Sandy McCook/DC Thomson.

“He should work much better with business. And give full-throated support to our excellent people working in oil, gas, farming, fishing and all the others of whom the Green Party disapprove.”

But some senior SNP politicians fear their leader misjudged the decision and should have put it to a vote of their own membership.

The first minister now looks “authoritarian rather than a leader”, one told the P&J.

And if he isn’t careful, he will find no one in any other party to help get any votes through, they added.

How are jilted Greens in north-east and Highlands responding?

Highland Green Councillor Chris Ballance claimed the “Tartan Tories have taken control of the SNP once more”.

It echoes remarks by Green co-leader Lorna Slater who accused the first minister of listening to the “most reactionary and backwards-looking forces within the SNP”.

Green activist Guy Ingerson – the party’s general election candidate in Aberdeen South – said the party had “tried to make it work”.

He added: “I do understand that Green members may be quite upset by the news but think it’s important to celebrate our successes and wins.

“It’s the first time we’ve ever been in government as a more united movement.”

Greens are now expected to back a no confidence motion in the first minister next week – meaning they could end up bringing a lot more down than just the coalition deal.

Listen to The Stooshie – the weekly Scottish politics podcast from the Press and Journal

Keep up to date with all our regional and national politics coverage on our dedicated pages here.

And stay informed by signing up to our daily politics newsletter.