As the country wakes up after the Holyrood election, Calum Ross analyses what could unfold in the following hours and days.
1) Nicola Sturgeon is returned as first minister
It has seemed inevitable for months now, but Ms Sturgeon will be keen to have secured her own mandate at the ballot box, having succeeded Alex Salmond in the top job in the wake of the 2014 independence referendum. Much will depend on whether she has won another majority. If the SNP falls short, it would likely seek to reach some kind of deal with the independence-supporting Scottish Greens.
2) A rainbow coalition is cobbled together
It is pretty much the only alternative to Ms Sturgeon becoming first minister, and extremely unlikely. But politics is unpredictable in the age of Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump. Such a scenario would require the SNP to miss out on a majority and virtually all the other parties – including bitter rivals Labour and the Conservatives – joining forces to instal Kezia Dugdale or Ruth Davidson as first minister. Even if the numbers worked, there would be uproar if the SNP was by far the biggest party but denied power.
3) A second independence referendum
It is not an issue that has gone away, but expect the battle over Scotland’s future to enter a new phase from today. Ms Sturgeon, whose victory seemed inevitable last night, will be under pressure immediately from independence supporters to strike while the iron is hot and move towards a second referendum while the SNP is seemingly going from strength to strength, and Labour is in disarray.
Others in the country will react with horror to the prospect. Ruth Davidson, who sought to sweep-up the pro-UK vote during the election campaign from Labour, will waste no time in calling for “Indyref 2” to be ruled out.
4) Questions over Kezia Dugdale’s future
She has only been in post for nine months and was given a near-impossible job, but it is likely there will be those calling for yet another change of the Labour leadership today, after what was shaping up to become a new low for the party in Scotland. A lot will depend on the scale of the defeat, and if there are any suitable and willing alternatives.
5) Conservatives hail their revival in Scotland
Ruth Davidson’s party was on course for its best showing in the Scottish Parliament, and appeared poised to push Labour into second place. If so, she will be hailed for achieving what would have seemed impossible a few years ago, and credited with “detoxifying” the Tory brand north of the border. Her opponents will point to the fact that the party still only won a handful of first-past-the-post victories in constituencies, however, and also that its breakthroughs were assisted by Labour’s ongoing implosion.
6) Liberal Democrats hail their revival in Scotland
Possibly premature, but Willie Rennie’s party appeared on course this morning to have successfully withstood the SNP’s advance in some of its last remaining strongholds, including both northern isles seats, where it strengthened its grip. And Mr Rennie himself managed to gain North East Fife from the SNP as well, a result which few, if any, predicted at the start of the night
7) A Cabinet reshuffle
Ms Sturgeon has only been first minister for a year-and-a-half, but she is likely to seek to freshen-up her top team for the new parliament.
8) Focus shifts to EU referendum
While it is arguably yet to capture the public’s imagination north of the border, the parties will almost immediately have to turn their attentions to the in-out referendum on Britain’s EU membership. Many believe a Brexit vote would provide Ms Sturgeon with a reason to hold a second independence referendum, if most Scots vote to remain.
9) SNP sets sights on a fourth term – and even a fifth
Cycles in democracies ensure one party rarely dominates indefinitely. The ongoing success of the Nationalists will have many questioning how and when their reign will come to an end. While it is a long way off, the numbers mean the SNP will likely go into the next election in five years as the favourites, barring a mid-term disaster. Labour may find itself battling for survival over the next few years, let alone contemplating a return to power. If Labour can not stop its decline, the Tory gains made this morning might mean the party is soon arguing that it is the only one able to topple the SNP, leaving their supporters dreaming that Scotland could one day go full circle and become a Conservative and Unionist country once more.
