Aberdeen is forecast to be one of the fastest growing UK city economies in the three months after Brexit Day, according to new analysis.
A report produced by law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) puts the Granite City’s predicted year-on-year gross value added (GVA) growth rate at 1.5% in the second quarter of 2019, placing it eighth in the league table.
GVA is the value of goods and services produced.
Aberdeen is not due to fare as well in relation to its workforce, however, with its expected employment growth of 0.6% being among the worst recorded rates.
And the report also raises concerns regarding how leaving the EU could affect Scotland.
It outlines how losing access to the single market could cut the country’s output by 8.5% by 2030 and warns Brexit could lead to investors re-evaluating and shifting their focus elsewhere.
Mark Higgins, regional managing partner at Irwin Mitchell’s Glasgow office, said the overall impacts of Brexit in the long-term were difficult to measure without clear guidelines and a deal in place.
But he added: “One thing that the last decade has taught us is that, despite the hugely disruptive force of the financial crisis, the UK economy has been incredibly resilient.”
Ross Thomson, Conservative MP for Aberdeen South, said there had been “far too much doom-mongering” over the impact of Brexit.
He welcomed the report’s acknowledgement of the strength of Aberdeen’s economy, adding: “It is no surprise that this engine room for growth in Scotland is projected to be in the top ten performing city areas of the UK.”
But he said: “There appears to have been very little consideration of the significant opportunities for growth after we leave the EU.”
SNP Westminster deputy leader and Aberdeen North MP Kirsty Blackman said it was vital the oil and gas sector deal be signed-off soon to anchor jobs in the north-east for the long-term.
Cebr’s forecasts are based on the assumption that the UK and the EU are able to sign a partial free trade agreement covering at least the most important goods traded around 2021.
