The sickness of vital doctors and nurses during winter could result a reduced workforce if Covid-19 cases rise again, according to a new draft report.
NHS Grampian’s remobilisation plan, submitted to the Scottish Government, reveals it expects an 11% absence of health and care staff under normal winter conditions and due to the impact of the coronavirus wave.
However, it also anticipates that numbers could increase to 15% during any resurgence of Covid-19.
The health board said the good health and wellbeing of staff across the care system remains “a priority”, but it warned the first wave Covid-19 response will have “some residual impact” on staff absences.
It also said the situation could impact workforce resilience during winter.
The report states: “Staff absence for some teams/staff groups is expected to be increased up to around 11% due to impact of Covid-19 and normal absence.
“If there is a resurgence of Covid-19, coupled with normal staff absence during winter, it is expected the rate will increase to at least 15% in some groups due to shielding, sickness, special leave.”
The new NHS Grampian plan said some workforce reductions will be “partially mitigated” by more staff having the technology to work from home, adding that it will enable health workers to “maintain the required social distancing measures” related to the requirements of their particular role.
However, the reports also states that the return of pre and post-graduate medical students to Aberdeen University and Robert Gordon University (RGU) will also result in a reduction in “staff availability during surges” of Covid-19.
A new NHS Grampian plan to treat more people online and reduce footfall at north-east hospitals is expected to be launched within weeks.
Operation Home First, a digital-only project, was introduced by Aberdeenshire Health and Social Care Partnership (AHSCP) to treat less serious conditions and reduce the risk of Covid-19 impacting health workers.
Angie Wood, interim chief officer for AHSCP, said the plan would take pressure off hospitals and lessen any potential second wave of the virus.
Speaking about the project in August, Ms Wood added: “Operation Home First isn’t just about patients staying at home, people will still need to come into hospital, but what’s important is that they get the right treatment at the right time and we avoid any unnecessary appointments or admissions where there’s an alternative and where they can be treated safely within their own environments.”
