The return of Marley Watkins from long-term injury will be key to Aberdeen’s top six and Euro qualification bid.
With only two games remaining before the Premiership split there is no room for error.
Languishing in 10th spot it is six points or bust as the season teeters on the brink of being salvaged – or disaster.
Watkins timely comeback from a three month injury absence could be the catalyst for a late surge into the top half of the table.
Why? When Watkins starts for Aberdeen the odds of a victory increase substantially.
Of the 11 Premiership matches, Welsh international Watkins has started this season Aberdeen have won six.
That is a win ratio of 55%.
With just nine Premiership wins in 31 matches this season Aberdeen’s overall win ratio is just 29%.
In the Premiership games Watkins hasn’t started this season wins drop even further with just three from 20 matches.
That is a win ratio of just 15%.
Watkins’ importance to Aberdeen was already evident last season during a loan spell from Bristol City.
In the 12 games he started in the 2020-21 campaign the Reds won eight, drew two and lost just two – for a win ratio of 67%.
Watkins’ loan spell was ultimately cut short in October 2020 when a hamstring injury forced his loan spell to be cut short and a return to his parent club.
As a result Aberdeen’s form last season dropped dramatically and they went on to suffer a six game run without a goal.
It was the worst goal drought in the club’s history.
It was similar this term as Aberdeen suffered two 10-game winless steaks during the time Watkins was sidelined.
Watkins influence was patently clear in October when he returned from a five week injury lay-off.
The attacker made his comeback as a substitute midway through the second half of a damaging 2-1 loss at struggling Dundee, a 10th straight game without a win.
Introduced when 2-0 down it was too late for Watkins to turn around the game.
However he had a major impact the following week as Aberdeen took seven points from a triple header against Hearts, Rangers and Hibs.
With Watkins Aberdeen are a far more dangerous proposition going forward.
He makes the attack tick.
With his game vision, pace, movement and ability to drag defenders out of position Watkins brings an extra dimension to the attack.
He can deliver that decisive pass for a goal and is the gel that binds the attack with midfield.
Unfortunately injury has denied Aberdeen that influence for long spells this season.
His importance was evident when within minutes of his return as a second half substitute against Hibs in the Reds’ last game.
Watkins pitched in with an assist with a low cross from the right for Vicente Besuijen’s superb goal in the 3-1 win.
His return could be the difference between the Reds fighting for European qualification – or seeing out the season in the depressing No man’s land of the bottom six.
Striker Christian Ramirez is on 15 goals for this season.
That is an impressive tally considering the United States international has been starved of consistent, quality service in many games.
I have no doubt had Watkins been injury-free this season Ramirez would be sitting on 20 goals plus by now.
More importantly had Watkins been fit the Reds would be in the top six.
He can yet be the catalyst to secure that top six finish – and potentially European qualification.
Aberdeen teen a league title winner
Aberdeen teenager Kieran Ngwenya will return to Pittodrie as a league title winner in the summer.
He was an exciting talent before being sent to Kelty Hearts on a season long loan.
Now the 19-year-old knows what it feels like to win a trophy at senior level.
That will be invaluable experience for the defender on returning to the Reds.
Ngwneya played a key role in Kelty Hearts’ run to the League Two title making 18 league starts, with another three appearances off the bench.
The full-back has made two substitute appearances for Aberdeen and also spent four months on loan at Cove Rangers last season.
Every time I have seen him in action Ngwenya has impressed.
Not only is he very talented he is also physically strong and has real fight and desire.
Although only 19 he has already been capped at senior level by Malawi.
Ngwenya is a real talent and I’m excited at the prospect of seeing him push for game time in Jim Goodwin’s side next season.
Rising star Connor Barron also spent time on loan at Kelty Hearts this season, making 13 starts before returning to Pittodrie in January.
Barron, 19, was given a new contract and a first team opportunity soon after that.
He grabbed his chance to shine and has been a standout and regular first team-starter under Goodwin.
🏆 The goal that clinched the title…
Max Kucheriavyi with a bullet header! #cinchL2 | @KeltyHeartsFC pic.twitter.com/hUFCHGVFGF
— SPFL (@spfl) March 28, 2022
When you add in the rise of Calvin Ramsay, 18, this season the Reds’ are producing real talent.
It bodes well not just for next season but many campaigns.
Gordon deserves top 10 spot
Scotland and Hearts keeper Craig Gordon moved level on 65 international caps with Gothenburg Great Willie Miller in the 1-1 draw with Poland.
That appearance also elevated Gordon into the top 10 all time appearance list.
It is a well deserved honour for a player who has shown tremendous courage and self-belief in the face of adversity.
Gordon battled back from a potentially career threatening long term injury to revitalise his career.
He is now firmly established as Scotland’s number one and will be key in the bid to qualify for the World Cup.