As we move into the second half of the Scottish football season, more than a few chairmen will be surveying the league tables and weighing-up whether or not their current managers can deliver on their targets.
For some, it will be titles, promotions or European places at stake, for others, survival will be the name of the game, but whatever the ambition, the pressure remains the same.
Already in 2023-24, a dozen clubs have changed bosses, Elgin City having done it twice, and other than Barry Smith, who left Borough Briggs after just a few weeks, only Brian Rice left his post voluntarily, swapping the top job at Alloa to become assistant at Livingston.
Four Premiership sides have wielded the axe, and given that Brendan Rodgers and Tony Docherty were new to their posts in the summer, that means half the top-flight clubs are now under different management from the end of last season.
Of the other six, only Derek McInnes and Stephen Robinson have so far escaped scrutiny or had their positions deemed uncertain.
St Johnstone and Ross County each blinked early, and have improved their standing since the respective appointments of Craig Levein and Derek Adams. Both remain in a relegation battle, but are closer to those above them, and if results do not improve for the likes of Motherwell and Aberdeen, they too might be left considering change.
Four Championship managers have also been culled, significantly the quartet who currently fill positions 7 to 10 in the league table. The most recent casualty was Lee Bullen who, against all the odds, led Ayr United to the promotion play-offs last year. I would have thought that gave him credit in the bank, but a run of one win in 11 proved to be the breaking point, and Lee was out of a job.
Alan Maybury is the only League One manager to be sacked, by Edinburgh City, and the division can boast four of the top seven longest-serving bosses in the SPFL.
It could be the chairmen there are more patient and understanding, but the more likely reason is that the drop down to League Two is less financially punishing than higher up the pyramid.
Clyde and Elgin are the only sides in the bottom tier to have acted at this stage of the campaign, and notably, they currently occupy positions 41 and 42 in the entire league set-up. Finishing at the foot of the pile is certainly something to be avoided.
Since the play-off there was introduced in 2014/15, five clubs have dropped out and only Brechin City, currently top of the Highland League, have shown any likelihood of reclaiming SPFL status.
The other four, Albion Rovers (22/23), Cowdenbeath (21/22), Berwick Rangers (18/19) and East Stirlingshire (15/16), currently sit in the bottom six of the 18-team Lowland League.
Clyde are adrift right now, but if they put together even a mini-revival, not just Elgin, but half the division could yet be involved in the shake-up.
The only thing guaranteed is that more managers will soon find themselves looking for work, and not just at the foot of the league.
Killie v Dundee could tie of the round
The big guns enter the fray in the Scottish Cup this weekend and the likelihood is that most will fairly comfortably secure their passage to the fifth round.
One guaranteed casualty will come at Rugby Park where McInnes and Docherty renew rivalries, and that Killie v Dundee showdown has the potential to be one of the more exciting encounters. I find it very hard to predict which side will emerge victorious.
🗺️ From @AyrUnitedFC's Somerset Park, to @RossCounty's Global Energy Stadium, there are Fourth Round fixtures up and down the country this weekend. #ScottishCup pic.twitter.com/LhpLzxq9jM
— Scottish Gas Scottish Cup (@ScottishCup) January 18, 2024
St Johnstone will be given an examination by Airdrieonians, and Raith Rovers might well trouble Livingston, while the only other potential upset could be in Dingwall where Partick Thistle will be hoping to edge out County.
With replays no longer an element of the competition, there will almost certainly be some extra-time and penalty shoot-out drama before the winners are known.
We all love a giant-killing, unless it is perpetrated on our team, but I fear that might be lacking from this weekend’s fixture list. I hope I am wrong, but I see it all going pretty much to form.
