The problem about politicians making big vote-winning promises is the public quite rightly expects to see them come true.
Disappointment at dreams not coming true can quickly turn to anger among those who have been let down.
People in the north and north-east have been patiently waiting for decades to see two vital road links upgraded. The A96 from Aberdeen to Inverness and the A9 from Perth to Inverness are among Scotland’s busiest routes.
Dualling delays costing lives
Yet drivers have to cope with huge tailbacks on a regular basis due to these roads not being fully dualled. As well as experiencing delays, which frustrate motorists and increase costs for businesses, there are major safety concerns. Both routes have fatal accidents on a regular basis.
North and north-east folk often feel their regions are regularly overlooked by politicians in the central belt when it comes to investment in essential services, including roads.
The SNP probably wishes it never made high-profile commitments to fully dual the A96 and A9, as its pledges have certainly come back to bite the party.
The A96 project was originally due to be finished by 2030 and the A9 work by 2025, but there is no chance of either date now being met. And there is still no word on revised completion dates.
A major stumbling block for today’s cash-strapped Scottish Government is cost. These long-awaited infrastructure projects are expected to exceed £6 billion in total and inflation means the figure is rising every year.
Scottish Government’s cash conundrum
Holyrood is already struggling to balance its books. First Minister Humza Yousaf has raised the prospect of imposing a wealth tax to help fill a £1bn black hole in his spending plans for 2024-25.
There are also fears he is planning more income tax hikes for Scotland’s middle classes, after ordering Shona Robison, the finance secretary, to “further progress delivery of the most progressive tax system in the UK”.
Ms Robison admitted in the spring that the government’s day-to-day spending “could outstrip our funding” by £1bn in 2024-25 rising to £1.9bn in 2027-28.
And, adding more uncertainty regarding the prospects for full dualling of the A96 and A9, is the stance of the other political party in the coalition with the SNP at Holyrood.
The Greens say all new road infrastructure should undergo a triple bottom line evaluation, ensuring projects deliver tangible benefits to the economy and society, while also respecting the environment.
Fears continue to grow in the north and north-east that full dualling of their two vital roads will not happen following comments from the first minister earlier this month.
More important than what he did said was what he didn’t say when questioned.
Campaigners in the Highlands now claim “trust is gone” after Mr Yousaf failed to answer when the A9 would be fully upgraded.
He told MSPs his government was committed to improving the A96, but stopped short of committing to dualling work between Aberdeen and Huntly that is currently subject to a climate review.
‘Positive noises’ from first minister but we’ve been down this particular road before
Fergus Ewing, SNP MSP for Inverness and Nairn, is a former minister who has reinvented himself as an outspoken backbench rebel.
Mr Ewing said: “The first minister repeated positive noises on the A9 dualling and A96 dualling from Inverness to Nairn, including the Nairn bypass. However, without the full detail people will not be persuaded – given the previous broken promises to dual these roads by 2025 and 2030 respectively.”
Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross pushed Mr Yousaf to confirm when the dualling of the A9 would be completed, but was met with silence.
Mr Ross said: “This is a crucial infrastructure project that is absolutely vital for Perthshire and the Highlands of Scotland. Indeed, for connectivity across our country.
“We had the highest death rate on that road last year in 20 years and the first minister can’t say when his promise will be delivered.”
The SNP had made dualling the full length of the A9 a key pledge in its election-winning 2007 manifesto. Four years later, the party promised to dual all of the A96 from Aberdeen to Inverness.
Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce policy director Ryan Crighton said: “People and businesses in the north-east have long been promised the A96 will be dualled in its entirely.
“If that commitment has been dropped, there needs to be honesty and absolute clarity around how the Scottish Government intends to make this road safe and fit for purpose.”
Mr Crighton added: “The north of Scotland has to be at the very heart of government strategy on providing clean energy and green industrialisation. Its two main cities need transport investment now to ensure they can deliver that future.”
North-east Conservative MSP Liam Kerr said: “Very early in this parliamentary term it became painfully obvious the SNP had no intention of fully dualling the A96.
“That U-turn was evident even before the Bute House agreement, which famously brought the anti-motorist, anti-business Scottish Greens into government, where some argue they wield power inversely proportional to the number of votes they received in 2021.
‘Appalling toll of injury and death’
“Dualling the A96 was an SNP promise the people needed to see honoured for our economy, for our development and, perhaps above all, to prevent the appalling toll of injury and death which we see on this road.
“Of course, the costs involved in upgrading any road are major and must not be incurred lightly. There is no getting away from that. However, in the 15 years or so since Alex Salmond promised dualling to win an election there has never been any suggestion of funding being made available, let alone quantified.”
Mr Kerr went on: “When the SNP government cooked up its latest wheeze to kick this into the long grass, it said there needed to be a ‘climate impact assessment’ and suggested this was driven by its Green partners.
“An onlooker might suspect the Greens are being used by Humza Yousaf’s government as stooges that everyone can blame for lack of investment in this, as with many other areas.
“But the reality is, the SNP – or at least the main government ministers who are noticeably all drawn from the central belt – never showed any intention of honouring their promise.”
Upgrading to a full dual carriageway must be a matter of when, not if.”
Liam Kerr MSP
Mr Kerr said dualling the A96, just like the A9, was about addressing proven statistical dangers of single-carriageway roads over dualled ones, but also opportunities for development.
He continued: “Upgrading to a full dual carriageway must be a matter of when, not if.
“And that’s why I’m furious that, as confirmed by the latest SNP programme for government, these further delays are a political as well as economic choice.
‘Broken promise’
“With two more such programmes remaining in this parliament, there is plenty of opportunity to reverse course on this broken promise.
“But here’s a prediction no bookie would take a bet on – whether the Greens are still in government or not, the SNP will not live up to its promises to dual the road, boost the north-east economy and save lives.”
North-east SNP MSP’s response
Banffshire and Buchan Coast SNP MSP Karen Adam, said the government recognised the importance of the A96 and A9 infrastructure projects in saving lives and boosting Scotland’s economy.
She added she was heartened to hear the first minister outline next steps, like the launch of the procurement for a section of the A9, in his recent programme for government.
Ms Adam went on: “There have undoubtedly been challenges, but it is right that the Scottish Government continues its work to improve these vital routes as a matter of urgency.
“I understand both the importance of the road for rural and Highland communities, and the safety concerns shared by many, and I welcome the continued commitment to these works by the Scottish Government.
“I look forward to seeing the delivery of these next steps and, in time, the final completion of the projects.”
There needs to be honesty and absolute clarity around how the Scottish Government intends to make this (A96) road safe and fit for purpose. ”
Ryan Crighton, Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce.
Meanwhile, The Press and Journal reported at the start of this year that a poll showed the vast majority of participants wanted the A96 to be fully dualled.
Just over 1,300 votes were cast and 1,221 said “yes”.
Members of the public will soon get to express their feelings at the ballot box. The next UK general-election is expected next year, and there is no doubt the non-dualling of both routes will be one of the hot topics for candidates across the north and north-east.
Conversation