The next step on the road to Qatar should be made in the next five days as Scotland bid to secure a play-off berth for the 2022 World Cup.
Victory in Moldova on Friday will secure a playoff spot for Steve Clarke’s men.
However, even if the unthinkable happens and the Scots slip up against the minnows, who have taken one point from eight games in this campaign to date, Scotland can still progress from Group F if rivals Israel lose in Austria in the 7.45pm kick-off.
The play-offs are tantalisingly within Scotland’s reach, but there is still significant work to be done before anyone is looking out their kilt and passport and making plans for a trip to Qatar in 12 months’ time.
Securing second spot behind group winners Denmark is the first task, but there are a few more hurdles to be navigated as there are only three places in the finals on offer.
That is why the play-off format for next year’s finals differs from what we’ve seen previously, with the two-legged matches of previous campaigns replaced with another group stage.
The 10 group runners-up from the European section will be joined by the two best group winners from the Nations League that have not qualified directly for the finals as group winners or in the play-offs already.
The three nations who will go on to Qatar will be determined by a second group stage where the 12 teams will be split into three groups of four, where they will play a semi-final and final in March next year.
The two Nations League participants will be unseeded with the six best runners-up of the 10 teams in qualifying being seeded for the play-off semi-finals.
Work to be done if Scotland are to be seeded for the play-off draw
The modern game being as convoluted as it is, the arithmetic continues with only the results against the top five-placed teams in the group stages counting towards seeding points for the play-offs.
That means Scotland, on 17 points with two games remaining, cannot count the three points they secured against Moldova at Hampden earlier in the campaign. If they win on Friday, the three points gained cannot be added to the tally either.
What this all means is that, while a win on Friday will secure a play-off berth, it seems increasingly likely the final game of the campaign against group winners Denmark on Monday is going to be pivotal in determining whether Scotland are seeded for the draw on November 26.
With so many permutations and so many issues still to be decided in the other groups, it is a near-impossible task trying to assess Scotland’s chances of being seeded.
But what is certain is the calibre of teams standing between Scotland and a place in Qatar will be impressive.
If the campaign was concluded now, the seeded teams for the draw would Portugal, Switzerland, Scotland, Spain, Poland and Croatia.
The unseeded teams would be the Czech Republic, Norway, Romania and Ukraine with Wales and Austria joining the draw as unseeded countries from the Nations League.
But that picture will likely look very different a week from now.
Scotland, barring an almighty collapse, will be in the play-offs.
But do not be fooled into thinking the hard work has been done. It is about to get even tougher.
