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Do not derail Buchan line with passenger figures, campaigners say

Transport chiefs have been warned not to underestimate passenger figures.
Transport chiefs have been warned not to underestimate passenger figures.

Campaigners in favour of reopening the Buchan railway line are urging transport bosses not to derail the project by looking at inaccurate passenger forecasts.

North-east transport body Nestrans is looking at how the railway could be reintroduced to the Buchan corner, first to Ellon and then potentially to Peterhead.

The recently reopened Borders railway – which is being used as a case study – was forecast to attract 647,000 passengers in its first year. The actual figure topped one million.

Now two north-east councillors have called for assurances that passengers will not be underestimated in Aberdeenshire.

Democratic Independent and Green Group (Digg) member Martin Ford said: “There must be no bias against reopening the rail line to Ellon or beyond in the evaluation of future transport options for the Fraserburgh, Peterhead, Ellon and Aberdeen transport corridor.

“The passenger numbers using rail stations and lines that have reopened have generally been above – often well above – the forecast numbers used to decide whether the reopening was a value-for-money investment.”

Mr Ford said pessimistic passenger forecasts risk undermining rail projects which would actually be hugely successful.

“There is every reason to believe a re-opened railway to Ellon would be a great success,” he added.

Fellow Digg member Paul Johnston said: “The business case for re-opening the railway, as opposed to other options, must not be unfairly damaged by underestimating the number of people who would opt to travel by train if that choice was available.”

“The desire to bring back the Buchan line must not be derailed by faulty forecasts.”

The pair have now written to Nestrans director Derrick Murray seeking assurances that better methods of predicting passenger numbers will be used.

Last night Mr Murray said: “We wholeheartedly agree that a realistic and robust assessment gives decision-makers the best possible grounds on which to determine the viability of any rail project, or any infrastructure project for that matter, and would always encourage factual assessments in every case.”