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Analysis: Destiny in Caley Thistle’s hands but expect it to finish with tense final night

Inverness will stay up on Saturday if they win at Dunfermline and Queen's Park lose at Arbroath. But will the drop-zone battle go the distance?

ICTFC, who are on their way to the final
Will Caley Thistle have Championship safety to celebrate this weekend? Image: SNS

Caley Thistle can secure their place in next season’s Championship this weekend – but smart money is on it going to the final night of action.

Third-bottom Inverness head to Dunfermline Athletic – who have nothing to play for – while Queen’s Park, one point lower than ICT, go to relegated Arbroath.

ICT manager Duncan Ferguson stirred a hornets’ nest in Angus last week when he claimed Jim McIntyre’s League One-bound side had “downed tools” as they slid to a 5-0 loss at Ayr United.

He was not expecting the league’s worst side to collect another point – including in their games against the Caley Jags’ relegation rivals.

Before and after Friday’s 1-0 defeat against Raith Rovers, Ferguson apologised for his comments, coming on the back of Arbroath calling for a retraction from the boss.

Arbroath did lose on Saturday – 2-1 against Morton – but that seemed to just be due to Ton’s ability – and they are now safe from the relegation play-off spot.

This Saturday, Callum Davidson takes Queen’s Park to Arbroath.

Should Arbroath win and ICT take full points against the Pars at East End Park, it’s job done and Ferguson’s men will ensure they won’t finish ninth.

The match at home to Morton the following Friday would be the dead rubber any Caley Jags fan would want right now.

ICTFC will hold all the cards with a win

Nothing to do with Arbroath’s will to win and capabilities, but Inverness should expect Queen’s Park to win at Gayfield, therefore meaning they must also win, to keep matters in their own hands.

There’s little to split ICT and Morton with one win apiece from their Cappielow contests this season and a 0-0 draw at the Caledonian Stadium over the festive period.

At least by winning at Dunfermline, they would have the safety net of knowing a draw against Ton on May 3 could keep them up.

Due to their superior goal difference, a defeat for ICT against Morton allied with a Queen’s Park final-night draw at home to promotion contenders Airdrie would also keep Inverness safe.

Inverness have drawn all three fixtures with Dunfermline this term, but they must go all out for the win to stay in control.

Shooting boots needed to defeat Pars

Prior to losing against Raith, despite an impressive display on Friday, ICT had posted back-to-back league wins for the first time this season, seeing off Arbroath and Queen’s Park to rise out of trouble. Queen’s Park’s draw at Dunfermline kept them ninth, but halved the gap to just one point.

Only champions Dundee United have conceded fewer goals than Inverness in the league this season (United, 22, ICT 38).

But only basement side Arbroath have scored fewer than the Highlanders (Arbroath 35, ICT 37).

Inverness have also not lost a league game by one more than goal – that came in a 2-0 loss at Airdrie on January 2.

Show firepower and finish the chances over these final two games and the chances are Inverness won’t need to worry about facing Hamilton, Alloa Athletic, Montrose or Cove Rangers in the League One play-offs.

Duncan Ferguson: ‘Best Caley Thistle display’ ended in defeat to Raith Rovers